The SEC gives us its best Saturday of the season with seven conference games, two bitter rivalries and a heavyweight showdown under the lights in Tuscaloosa. By the end of the night, we should have a much clearer picture of who is truly capable of reaching Atlanta—and which teams have already fallen out of the race.

TEXAS A&M AT MISSOURI

Missouri responded to its first loss of the season by dismantling Florida. Austin Simmons was decisive, accurate and in complete control of the Tigers’ offense.

Texas A&M handled Arkansas, but the Aggies remain difficult to trust against quality competition. Marcel Reed must create explosive plays without turning the football over, and the Aggies cannot allow Missouri to establish an early rhythm at home.

Missouri is the more complete and consistent team right now.

JB’S PICK: Missouri 31, Texas A&M 20

SOUTH CAROLINA AT FLORIDA

This is a matchup between two teams trying to recover from ugly losses.

Florida was embarrassed by Missouri, but South Carolina’s problems run much deeper. The Gamecocks continue to make costly mistakes, drop passes, miss tackles and surrender leads. LaNorris Sellers has regressed, and the coaching staff has yet to provide any indication that it knows how to stop the collapse.

Florida possesses the more physical roster and gets the Gamecocks in the Swamp. Until South Carolina proves it can play a complete game, there is no reason to pick it against a talented opponent on the road.

JB’S PICK: Florida 34, South Carolina 20

TEXAS VS. OKLAHOMA

The Red River Rivalry occasionally ignores records, rankings and common sense. Oklahoma would love nothing more than to destroy Texas’ perfect season.

The problem is that Oklahoma has not demonstrated enough offensive consistency to keep pace. Texas has more playmakers, better quarterback play and a defense capable of putting the Sooners in long-yardage situations.

Oklahoma may keep it competitive early, but Texas should take control after halftime.

JB’S PICK: Texas 35, Oklahoma 17

OLE MISS AT VANDERBILT

Vanderbilt is no longer an automatic victory. The Commodores are physical, disciplined and capable of making a favorite uncomfortable for four quarters.

Ole Miss, however, has too much offensive firepower. Trinidad Chambliss gives the Rebels the ability to attack every area of the field, and the expected return of Kewan Lacy would restore balance to the offense.

Vanderbilt keeps it interesting, but Ole Miss pulls away late.

JB’S PICK: Ole Miss 34, Vanderbilt 24

TENNESSEE AT ARKANSAS

Arkansas is struggling to find an identity. The Razorbacks have not protected the football particularly well, and their defense has been unable to consistently get off the field.

Tennessee’s speed should create serious problems on the perimeter. If the Volunteers avoid giving Arkansas short fields, they should control the game from the opening quarter.

The Razorbacks will play hard at home, but Tennessee is simply the better football team.

JB’S PICK: Tennessee 38, Arkansas 20

LSU AT KENTUCKY

Kentucky showed tremendous toughness by erasing a 17-point deficit and beating South Carolina in overtime. The Wildcats are confident, physical and dangerous at home.

LSU represents a much more difficult challenge. The Tigers have the defensive front to disrupt Kentucky’s running game and force the Wildcats to consistently convert through the air. Kentucky cannot afford another slow start against a team capable of turning early mistakes into a three-score deficit.

The Wildcats make LSU work for it, but the Tigers survive Lexington.

JB’S PICK: LSU 30, Kentucky 21

GEORGIA AT ALABAMA

This is the game that will define the weekend.

Georgia enters undefeated, but the Bulldogs have not faced an opponent with Alabama’s combination of talent, speed and quarterback play. Keelon Russell has looked increasingly comfortable and just delivered another poised performance against Mississippi State.

Georgia can pressure Russell, control the line of scrimmage and shorten the game with its rushing attack. Alabama’s challenge will be preventing the Bulldogs from dictating the pace.

The difference may be Russell’s ability to create something when the original play breaks down. With the game in Tuscaloosa, Alabama makes one more explosive play in the fourth quarter and hands Georgia its first loss.

JB’S PICK: Alabama 30, Georgia 27

JB’S SEC PICKS

Missouri over Texas A&M
Florida over South Carolina
Texas over Oklahoma
Ole Miss over Vanderbilt
Tennessee over Arkansas
LSU over Kentucky
Alabama over Georgia

GAME OF THE WEEK: Georgia at Alabama

UPSET ALERT: LSU at Kentucky

PICK I FEEL BEST ABOUT: Texas over Oklahoma

The road to Atlanta begins narrowing this weekend. Georgia–Alabama will command the spotlight, but several teams throughout the conference are approaching games they simply cannot afford to lose.