Florida at Auburn
Saturday, September 19
6 p.m. CT | ESPN
Jordan-Hare Stadium, Auburn, Alabama
For the first time since 2019, Florida and Auburn are playing football again. That alone makes this one feel like an old-school SEC game.
These programs have met 84 times, with Auburn holding a narrow 43-39-2 advantage. They played every year from 1945 through 2002 before conference expansion pushed one of the SEC’s better rivalries into the background.
Now it returns with both teams undefeated, both programs under new leadership and both coaches looking for their first real SEC statement.
Florida has looked like the more complete team through two weeks. Auburn has faced the tougher opponent and will have Jordan-Hare Stadium behind it. The oddsmakers see virtually no separation between them, and neither do I.
This could be one of the most revealing games of the weekend.
THE COACHING MATCHUP
I have been high on Jon Sumrall since Florida hired him. He is a program builder whose teams play tough, physical and disciplined football. Florida didn’t need another salesman. It needed someone who could rebuild the culture and make the Gators look like the Gators again.
Alex Golesh was an intriguing hire for Auburn. He brought his offense, his quarterback and a large portion of his South Florida operation with him. Auburn is not asking him to build the plane while flying it because many of the important pieces already understand his system.
These two coaches know one another extremely well. They competed against each other while coaching at Tulane and South Florida, and their programs were built around many of the same principles—tempo, physicality and making the opposing defense defend every inch of the field.
That familiarity adds another layer to this game. Neither staff should be surprised by what it sees Saturday night.
WHEN AUBURN HAS THE FOOTBALL
Everything begins with Byrum Brown.
Brown is a big, experienced dual-threat quarterback who has started more games than any other SEC quarterback. He is built like a running back, can extend plays and gives Auburn an extra blocker in the running game because the defense must account for him on every snap.
He was reckless with the football against Baylor, throwing three interceptions in Auburn’s 17-16 escape. Against Southern Miss, he looked much more comfortable, accounting for 319 yards and three touchdowns without committing a turnover.
That is the Byrum Brown Auburn needs against Florida.
The Tigers have rushed for more than 300 yards in each of their first two games. Jeremiah Cobb remains an important part of the backfield, while Omar Mabson is coming off a 108-yard performance against Southern Miss. Brown added 88 yards on the ground himself.
Golesh will use tempo, quarterback runs, zone reads and misdirection to make Florida’s linebackers hesitate. If the Gators lose discipline with their eyes, Brown can pull the football and get into the secondary quickly.
Florida cannot allow him to consistently turn broken plays into first downs. The Gators need to keep him inside the pocket, maintain rush-lane integrity and force him to win by completing difficult throws from predictable passing situations.
Auburn’s passing game is improving, but it is still the less dependable part of the offense. Brown completed only 61 percent of his passes against Southern Miss, and the Tigers do not want to spend Saturday night facing third-and-long against Florida’s defensive front.
Auburn’s path to winning is controlling the game on the ground, staying ahead of the chains and preventing Florida from turning this into a track meet.
WHEN FLORIDA HAS THE FOOTBALL
Aaron Philo has been one of the early surprises in the SEC.
Through two games, Philo has completed 32 of 42 passes for 517 yards and five touchdowns. He has also scored with his legs. He isn’t the biggest or most physically gifted quarterback in the conference, but he has played with poise, distributed the football and made good decisions.
That is exactly what Florida needs from him.
Philo does not have to carry this offense by himself because the Gators have legitimate weapons around him.
Jadan Baugh rushed for 136 yards and two touchdowns against Campbell, including a 75-yard score. He gives Florida the physical inside running threat it will need in Jordan-Hare.
Dallas Wilson is coming off a 104-yard receiving performance, and Vernell Brown III may be the most dangerous player on either roster. Brown can change the game as a receiver, on manufactured touches and in the return game. He returned two punts for touchdowns against Campbell and finished with three total scores.
Auburn cannot kick the football to him carelessly.
Florida has scored 118 points through two games, but Florida Atlantic and Campbell are not SEC defenses. Auburn will challenge the Gators at the line of scrimmage, disguise coverages and force Philo to make decisions in a much louder and more hostile environment.
This will be Philo’s first true SEC test. How he handles pressure, crowd noise and third down may determine the game.
THE LINE-OF-SCRIMMAGE BATTLE
This game will be decided up front.
Auburn has already demonstrated that it can run the football. The Tigers’ offensive line has helped produce more than 600 rushing yards in two games, and Brown makes the numbers even more difficult for a defense.
Florida must win on first down. If Auburn consistently creates second-and-five situations, Golesh will have his entire playbook available and Florida will spend the night chasing Brown.
When Florida has the football, the Gators need to establish Baugh early. Auburn cannot be allowed to attack Philo with exotic pressures while ignoring the running game.
The team that forces the other quarterback into obvious passing situations will have the advantage.
THE TURNOVER QUESTION
Auburn survived three interceptions against Baylor. It will not survive that kind of performance against Florida.
Brown protected the football against Southern Miss, but Florida will test whether that improvement was real. Sumrall will want his defense to make Brown read coverage after the snap and force him to complete passes into tight windows.
Philo has thrown only one interception in 42 attempts, but he has not faced a road environment like Jordan-Hare. Auburn opened the Southern Miss game with a pick-six and intercepted two passes overall.
Both defenses have shown that they can create momentum-changing plays. In a matchup this close, one bad decision could be the difference.
DISCIPLINE COULD DECIDE IT
Neither coach should be pleased with his team’s penalties last weekend.
Auburn committed 10 penalties against Southern Miss. Florida was flagged eight times for 95 yards against Campbell.
Those mistakes may not matter when winning by 35 or 49 points. They matter when playing an evenly matched SEC opponent.
False starts, holding penalties and personal fouls can kill possessions. Sumrall and Golesh are both attempting to build disciplined programs. Saturday night will tell us which team is further along.
FIVE KEYS TO THE GAME
- Florida must contain Byrum Brown.
Containing does not mean completely stopping him. That is probably unrealistic. Florida must prevent his legs from continually extending drives and creating explosive plays.
- Auburn must make Aaron Philo uncomfortable.
Philo has looked calm and efficient through two games. Auburn needs to pressure him, change the picture after the snap and see how he responds when things are no longer easy.
- Florida must establish Jadan Baugh.
A dependable running game would take pressure off Philo and prevent Auburn from controlling the game with its pass rush.
- Auburn must control Vernell Brown III.
Brown can score from anywhere on the field. Auburn must know where he is on every offensive snap and should strongly consider keeping punts away from him entirely.
- Both teams must protect the football.
This does not feel like a game in which either team can overcome multiple turnovers. Whichever quarterback plays the cleaner game probably wins.
PLAYERS TO WATCH
Auburn
Byrum Brown, quarterback — The most important player in Auburn’s offense and the player Florida must contain.
Jeremiah Cobb, running back — A proven SEC back who gives Auburn speed and explosiveness.
Omar Mabson, running back — Coming off the first 100-yard game of his career.
Andre Jordan Jr., cornerback — Returned an interception for a touchdown against Southern Miss.
Elijah Melendez, linebacker — Auburn’s leading tackler last weekend and an active presence around the line of scrimmage.
Florida
Aaron Philo, quarterback — This is where we find out how ready he is for SEC football.
Jadan Baugh, running back — Florida needs his physical running style to travel.
Vernell Brown III, receiver/returner — The most explosive and versatile player in this matchup.
Dallas Wilson, receiver — Gives Philo a legitimate vertical threat on the outside.
Myles Graham, linebacker — His ability to diagnose Auburn’s option game will be critical.
JB’S BREAKDOWN
Florida has been the more explosive team, but Auburn has been tested more. The Tigers had to survive a close game against Baylor before dominating Southern Miss. Florida has overwhelmed two opponents that were not equipped to match its talent.
Now both teams step into SEC play.
Auburn’s running game concerns me because Florida has not yet faced an offense with a quarterback who can hurt it like Brown. He can keep Auburn on the field, frustrate the defense and turn a busted play into a 25-yard gain.
But Florida has more weapons, a more balanced offense and the better overall defense.
The environment keeps Auburn in the game. So does Brown. However, I trust Sumrall’s team to be slightly more disciplined and Philo to make one or two more plays through the air.
This one should remain close into the fourth quarter, but Florida makes a late defensive stop and leaves Jordan-Hare with its first SEC victory of the Sumrall era.
JB’S PREDICTION
Florida 31, Auburn 27
— JB
