This is where the preseason ends.
South Carolina and Mississippi State are both 2-0, but the paths they took to get here look considerably different. The Gamecocks handled Kent State 57-0 before struggling through an uneven 45-9 victory over Towson. Mississippi State destroyed Louisiana-Monroe 62-13 and then walked into Minnesota and came away with an impressive 38-13 victory.
Statistically, both teams have put up some ridiculous numbers.
South Carolina is averaging 573.5 yards per game, including 341.5 yards on the ground. Mississippi State is averaging 620.5 yards and 50 points per game.
Those numbers are impressive, but the simulator discounts production based on the strength of the opponent. This is the first SEC game for both teams—and the first time we should begin learning what either one actually is.
HOW THE PREDICTOR SEES IT
I ran 10,000 simulations using scoring production, offensive efficiency, defensive performance, rushing success, quarterback play, turnovers, opponent strength and home-field advantage.
SIMULATOR RESULTS
South Carolina wins: 5,840 simulations
Mississippi State wins: 4,160 simulations
South Carolina win probability: 58.4%
Mississippi State win probability: 41.6%
Games decided by seven points or fewer: 48.7%
Overtime probability: 4.1%
The simulator gives South Carolina the edge, but this is far from a comfortable projection.
PROJECTED TEAM PRODUCTION
Mississippi State
Total yards: 418
Passing yards: 254
Rushing yards: 164
Third-down conversions: 6 of 14
Turnovers: 1.4
Sacks allowed: 2
Time of possession: 29:12
South Carolina
Total yards: 443
Passing yards: 226
Rushing yards: 217
Third-down conversions: 7 of 14
Turnovers: 1.2
Sacks allowed: 2
Time of possession: 30:48
THE QUARTERBACK MATCHUP
Kamario Taylor has been one of the early surprises in the SEC. He has completed 38 of 56 passes for 581 yards and seven touchdowns through two games.
Taylor is 6-foot-4, 230 pounds, athletic, confident and capable of creating problems with both his arm and his legs.
Ten of Mississippi State’s first 12 possessions with Taylor at quarterback this season ended in touchdowns. The other two ended in field goals. That is ridiculous offensive efficiency, regardless of the opposition.
South Carolina cannot allow Taylor to settle into an early rhythm. The Gamecocks must pressure him while maintaining lane discipline because reckless pressure will give him opportunities to escape and create explosive plays.
LaNorris Sellers enters the game having completed 29 of 46 passes for 366 yards, three touchdowns and one interception. He was outstanding against Kent State but considerably less effective against Towson.
This is a major game for Sellers.
South Carolina cannot rely entirely on the running game and expect to survive the SEC schedule. Sellers must be more decisive, more accurate downfield and willing to take what the defense gives him.
PROJECTED QUARTERBACK PRODUCTION
LaNorris Sellers
19 of 30
226 passing yards
Two passing touchdowns
One interception
64 rushing yards
Kamario Taylor
21 of 33
254 passing yards
Two passing touchdowns
One interception
51 rushing yards
WHERE SOUTH CAROLINA HAS THE ADVANTAGE
The Gamecocks’ biggest advantage is their running game.
Matt Fuller has rushed for 199 yards on only 21 carries, and South Carolina is averaging 341.5 rushing yards per game. The offensive line has been inconsistent at times, but when it gets movement, this backfield has shown that it can generate explosive plays.
South Carolina should make Mississippi State defend the entire width of the field with Fuller, Sellers and the rest of the running back rotation. The Gamecocks cannot abandon the ground game if Mississippi State jumps ahead early.
The simulator projects South Carolina to finish with approximately 217 rushing yards. If the Gamecocks reach that number without turning the ball over, their probability of winning climbs to nearly 70%.
WHERE MISSISSIPPI STATE HAS THE ADVANTAGE
Mississippi State currently has the more dangerous passing attack.
Taylor has already thrown seven touchdown passes, while Anthony Evans III has caught 14 passes for 239 yards and two touchdowns. Evans will test a South Carolina secondary that has not yet faced this combination of quarterback talent and receiving ability.
The Bulldogs also arrive with confidence after winning convincingly on the road at Minnesota.
They have already played in a hostile environment and handled it. Williams-Brice will be louder and hotter, but Mississippi State will not be intimidated simply because this game is being played in Columbia.
THE MATCHUP THAT COULD DECIDE IT
South Carolina’s defensive front against Kamario Taylor.
The Gamecocks must get pressure without losing containment. Taylor is too athletic to give him open escape lanes, and Mississippi State’s offense becomes extremely difficult to defend when he extends plays.
South Carolina has only two credited sacks through two games. That number needs to change Saturday.
The Gamecocks do not necessarily need five or six sacks, but they must make Taylor uncomfortable. They need hits, hurried throws and long-yardage situations.
Allow him to operate on schedule, and Mississippi State can absolutely win this football game.
THE DANGER ZONE
The opening quarter concerns me.
South Carolina turned the ball over on its opening possession against Towson and then followed it with a three-and-out. The offense was held scoreless during the first quarter by an FCS opponent.
Do that against Mississippi State, and Carolina could be down 14-0 before everybody settles into their seats.
The simulator shows that when Mississippi State scores first, its winning probability rises from 41.6% to 54%.
When the Bulldogs lead by 10 or more points at any point, they win almost 72% of the simulations.
South Carolina cannot sleepwalk through the opening quarter again.
THREE KEYS FOR SOUTH CAROLINA
- START FAST
Mississippi State is too explosive offensively for South Carolina to waste possessions finding its rhythm.
- RUN THE FOOTBALL
Fuller, Sellers and the offensive line must control the game and keep Taylor standing on the sideline.
- WIN THE TURNOVER BATTLE
The margin between these teams is too narrow to give Mississippi State additional possessions.
JB’S FINAL ANALYSIS
I believe Mississippi State is better than most people thought entering the season.
Taylor is the truth, and the Bulldogs have enough offensive firepower to make this uncomfortable for four quarters.
South Carolina has the deeper roster, the home-field advantage and the stronger running game. But the Gamecocks will have to play considerably better than they did against Towson.
This feels like a game in which Mississippi State lands the first punch, South Carolina settles down, and the fourth quarter becomes a battle between two talented quarterbacks.
The simulator gives South Carolina the edge—but only barely.
JB’S GAME PREDICTOR FINAL SCORE
SOUTH CAROLINA 34
MISSISSIPPI STATE 30
The Gamecocks survive their first real test, but nobody leaves Williams-Brice believing this one was easy.
