The laboratory is officially open.
We’ve been building JB’s Game Predictor over the last couple of weeks, and now it’s time to put the thing to work.
For those who missed my explanation of how this works, the Predictor isn’t simply me looking at two football teams and pulling a score out of the air. We’re taking team strength, strength of schedule, offensive and defensive efficiency, quarterback play, line-of-scrimmage performance, explosive plays, turnovers, personnel, special teams and situational factors and feeding all of it into the model.
Then comes what I call the JB Matchup Adjustment.
That’s where I put the spreadsheet aside for a minute and look at the game as a football guy. Personnel. Scheme. Individual matchups. Strength against weakness.
Because I’ve said this for years:
Numbers can tell you where to look. Your eyes still have to tell you what you’re seeing.
So let’s crank up the machine.
SOUTH CAROLINA VS. KENT STATE
The more I’ve studied this matchup, the more I believe South Carolina has a significant advantage.
Kent State deserves some respect. This isn’t a team I’m simply going to dismiss because it plays in the MAC.
The Golden Flashes have one player in particular who has my attention.
Quarterback Dru DeShields threw for more than 2,000 yards last season with 18 touchdowns against only three interceptions. That’s the number that jumps off the page at me.
Three interceptions.
That tells me we’re dealing with a quarterback who generally isn’t going to panic and hand South Carolina the football three times just because he’s playing in Williams-Brice Stadium.
If Kent State is going to make this game uncomfortable for a while, DeShields is probably the guy who does it.
The problem is everything around him.
THIS GAME SHOULD BE WON IN THE TRENCHES
Here’s the number I can’t get away from:
Kent State surrendered more than 190 rushing yards per game last season.
That’s where South Carolina needs to attack.
I’ve talked all offseason about Carolina’s offensive line. We’ve heard about the improvements. We’ve talked about the additions. We’ve talked about how much better this group needs to be.
Now show me.
Against Kent State, I want to see South Carolina line up and move people.
Nothing fancy.
Give me four yards.
Give me five.
Then do it again.
If Carolina is consistently getting five or six yards on first down, Kent State is going to have a very long afternoon.
Eventually the Golden Flashes have to start committing additional bodies to stopping the run.
That’s when LaNorris Sellers becomes a nightmare.
THE BEST PLAYER ON THE FIELD
There shouldn’t be much debate about this one.
LaNorris Sellers should be the best football player on that field.
And I don’t need to see him prove it by throwing 45 passes or running the football 20 times.
Quite frankly, I’d rather not.
This is Game 1 of a long season.
Let Sellers operate the offense. Let him make some throws. Let him use his legs when the opportunity presents itself.
But don’t spend an afternoon unnecessarily beating up your quarterback in a game you’re supposed to control.
If Carolina establishes the running game, Sellers’ presence alone puts Kent State in a bind.
Bring another defender into the box and you create opportunities outside.
Keep everybody back and Carolina should continue running the football.
Pick your poison.
THERE ARE SOME CAROLINA CONCERNS
The Predictor doesn’t ignore bad news just because I like the Gamecocks in the matchup.
South Carolina has already lost receivers Jayden Sellers and Jayden Gibson for the season.
And as we get closer to kickoff, Dylan Stewart and Jacarrius Peak remain significant availability concerns for the opener.
Those aren’t insignificant losses.
Peak matters because this is an offensive line we’re trying to evaluate.
Stewart matters because he’s the kind of defensive player who can completely change what an opposing quarterback is allowed to do.
That’s part of the reason I’m not projecting one of these ridiculous 50-something-to-3 scores.
But Carolina should still have enough personnel advantage to overcome those absences against Kent State.
MAKE KENT STATE ONE-DIMENSIONAL
This may be the biggest defensive key of the game.
Kent State struggled badly running the football last season, averaging fewer than 100 rushing yards per game and around three yards per carry.
If that continues in Columbia, DeShields has a problem.
Because now we’re talking about second-and-eight.
Third-and-seven.
Third-and-nine.
That’s when South Carolina can start dictating the football game.
Even if Dylan Stewart doesn’t play, Carolina should have enough athletes defensively to create problems when everybody in the stadium knows Kent State has to throw.
DeShields protects the football extremely well.
The objective isn’t necessarily to force him into three interceptions.
The objective is to make him uncomfortable for four quarters.
DON’T GIVE THEM HOPE
Underdogs need weird things to happen.
A turnover.
A blocked punt.
A kickoff return.
A busted coverage.
Something that changes the emotional temperature of the football game.
Kent State has shown the ability to be dangerous in the return game.
Don’t give them that opportunity.
This needs to be a boring special-teams game for South Carolina.
Kick it.
Cover it.
Tackle the guy.
Go play defense.
Don’t manufacture confidence for the other sideline.
WHAT THE SIMULATOR SEES
Our original Predictor had this game closer.
The more information we’ve fed into the model, however, the wider the projected margin has become.
And there’s one primary reason.
The matchup numbers are ugly for Kent State.
A defense that surrendered more than 33 points and 427 yards per game last season is now facing an SEC roster with one of the most physically gifted quarterbacks in college football.
On the other side, an offense that struggled to run the football now has to walk into Williams-Brice and find a way to stay out of obvious passing situations.
That’s a bad combination.
The simulator keeps producing the same general game script.
Kent State makes a few plays early.
DeShields moves the football enough to keep things interesting.
South Carolina establishes the running game.
The Gamecocks begin controlling the line of scrimmage.
And eventually the difference in personnel and depth takes over.
I wouldn’t be shocked if Gamecock fans are a little aggravated sometime during the second quarter.
Maybe it’s 17–7.
Maybe 20–10.
Season openers can be ugly.
But football games are four quarters long.
And that’s where I think Carolina separates.
JB’S KEYS TO THE GAME
1. Establish the run.
If Kent State couldn’t stop the run last season, don’t overthink this thing. Make them stop it now.
2. Keep Sellers clean.
Let the offensive line establish some confidence and don’t expose your quarterback to unnecessary punishment.
3. Stop Kent State’s running game.
Make DeShields play from second-and-long and third-and-long.
4. Eliminate cheap points.
No special-teams disasters. No stupid turnovers. No busted coverages.
5. Finish the game.
When the talent difference begins showing up, put Kent State away.
THE PREDICTION
The original version of JB’s Game Predictor was more conservative.
I’m not anymore.
The deeper I’ve gone into this matchup, the more difficult it becomes to find enough areas where Kent State has an advantage to keep this game close for four quarters.
I respect their quarterback.
I respect what they accomplished last season.
But I don’t think they can consistently run the football against South Carolina, and I don’t think their defense can keep Carolina from controlling the line of scrimmage.
Eventually that catches up with them.
The mad scientist has run the numbers.
The football guy has looked at the matchup.
And they agree.
JB’S GAME PREDICTOR
SOUTH CAROLINA 41
KENT STATE 13
Projected win probability: 97%
Carolina starts slowly enough to make everybody nervous, takes control before halftime and puts the game away in the second half.
Then we’ll come back after the game and grade the Predictor.
Because if I’m going to let this crazy machine predict football games all season, we’re damn sure going to keep track of whether it knows what it’s talking about.
Gamecocks 41, Golden Flashes 13.
Fire up the laboratory.
