JB’s Early Heisman Watch: Show Me Something First

Every year about this time, the Heisman Trophy conversation starts, and every year I have the same problem with some of these lists.

We start handing out spots based on hype instead of production.

I’m not interested in who somebody tells me is supposed to be great. I’m interested in who has shown me something, who is in the right situation, and who I believe is capable of putting together the kind of season that puts his name on that trophy in December.

So here is where I am right now.

1. CJ Carr — Notre Dame

Carr is my guy right now.

I’ve already picked Notre Dame to win the national championship, and Carr fits the bill of exactly what you’re looking for in a Heisman candidate.

He’s the quarterback of one of the most recognizable programs in college football. Notre Dame should win a lot of games, and their schedule is favorable enough that Carr should have plenty of opportunities to put up numbers.

That combination matters.

If Notre Dame is sitting there late in the season as one of the best teams in the country and Carr is putting up big numbers, he’s going to be right in the middle of this thing.

Right now, he’s my pick.

2. Dante Moore — Oregon

Moore is probably in as good a situation as anybody in America.

Oregon has talent everywhere. He’s going to have weapons around him, he’s going to have protection, and he’s playing for a team that should be competing for a championship.

That’s a pretty good recipe for a Heisman quarterback.

The thing I like about Moore is that he doesn’t have to be Superman every Saturday. Oregon has enough talent around him that he can play within the offense, distribute the football and let his ability take over when necessary.

If Oregon has the kind of season I expect them to have, Moore should put up some impressive numbers along the way.

3. Darian Mensah — Miami

Mensah is another quarterback who has the opportunity to put himself squarely in this race.

Miami should be good, and if the Hurricanes are playing meaningful football in November, their quarterback is going to get plenty of national attention.

That’s just how this thing works.

Win football games. Put up numbers. Make a couple of big plays in nationally televised games, and suddenly you’re sitting in New York in December.

Mensah has that opportunity.

4. John Mateer — Oklahoma

Here is the guy I think people are sleeping on.

John Mateer.

Oklahoma’s schedule isn’t going to do him any favors, but there’s another way of looking at that.

It’s going to give him opportunities.

If Mateer goes out there and beats some really good football teams while putting up numbers, people aren’t going to be able to ignore him.

The Heisman isn’t just about statistics. It’s about moments.

It’s about that Saturday night when everybody in America is watching and you make the play that people are still talking about Monday morning.

Mateer is going to have opportunities to create those moments.

Keep an eye on him.

And Where Is Arch Manning?

I know what some of you are asking.

Where is Arch Manning?

He’s not on my list.

And before somebody loses their mind, I’m not saying Arch Manning isn’t talented. Of course he’s talented. I’m not saying he won’t eventually be in the Heisman conversation, either.

He very well may be.

I’m saying something much simpler:

Show me something first.

What exactly has Arch Manning done on a college football field to justify automatically putting him at or near the top of a Heisman list?

We’re projecting.

We’re talking about his talent. We’re talking about his potential. We’re talking about the Manning name. We’re talking about what everybody thinks he’s eventually going to become.

That’s fine.

But I don’t hand out trophies for what somebody might become.

Go do it.

If Manning goes out there this season and starts lighting people up, I’ll move him right into the conversation. I have absolutely no problem doing that.

But he’s going to earn his way onto my list.

I’m not putting him there because his last name is Manning.

Same Thing With Julian Sayin

I feel similarly about Julian Sayin at Ohio State.

The talent is obvious. The situation is terrific. He’s surrounded by some of the best football players in America, and I fully expect that he’s going to be part of this conversation before the season is over.

But again:

Show me.

That’s the evaluator in me.

I’ve spent too many years evaluating football players to get caught up in what somebody is supposed to be. I’ve seen five-star players who couldn’t play dead in a cowboy movie, and I’ve seen kids nobody wanted turn themselves into NFL players.

Eventually you’ve got to stop talking about potential and play football.

Sayin may prove me wrong for leaving him off this early list.

Manning may prove me wrong too.

Good.

That’s what I want them to do.

My Dark Horse: LaNorris Sellers

And then there is one more name.

LaNorris Sellers.

I’m not predicting right now that Sellers will be one of the finalists sitting in New York. South Carolina’s season and his numbers will ultimately determine whether he can climb that high.

But I’m telling you right now:

By the end of this season, LaNorris Sellers will be in the Heisman conversation.

I’ve evaluated football players for a long time, and there aren’t many quarterbacks walking around with the physical tools this kid possesses.

Size. Athleticism. Arm talent. Running ability. The ability to create when everything around him breaks down.

It’s all there.

Now he has to turn those tools into production.

And South Carolina’s schedule is going to give him opportunities to make a statement. If Sellers walks into some of those big games and starts making plays against elite competition, people around the country are going to start paying attention very quickly.

He may not make it all the way to New York.

But don’t be surprised when you start hearing his name.