NO. 2 NOTRE DAME AT NO. 8 BYU
Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET | ABC
This is the game I have been waiting to see.
Notre Dame was my preseason pick to win the national championship, and nothing I have seen through the first six games has caused me to back away from that prediction.
The Fighting Irish are 6–0, ranked No. 2 in the country and coming off a 58–7 destruction of Stanford. They have won every game by double digits and have looked like one of the most complete teams in college football.
Now we are going to find out how they respond when somebody hits back.
Notre Dame travels to Provo to face an undefeated BYU team in one of the biggest home games in that program’s history. ESPN College GameDay will be there, LaVell Edwards Stadium will be rocking, and the Cougars will believe they can beat anybody in the country.
This will be Notre Dame’s most dangerous test of the season.
NOTRE DAME’S NFL TALENT
Notre Dame is not simply a good college football team. This roster is loaded with NFL talent.
These are the Fighting Irish players currently on my draft board:
Anthonie Knapp, OL
Francis Brewu, DL
Boubacar Traore, EDGE
Kyngstonn Viliamu-Asa, LB
Leonard Moore, CB *
Tae Johnson, S *
CJ Carr, QB *
*Projected first-round selection
That is why I selected Notre Dame to win the national championship before the season began. The Irish have talent at quarterback, along the offensive line and at every level of the defense.
They are built to win games in different ways.
CJ CARR IS PLAYING LIKE A FIRST-ROUND QUARTERBACK
CJ Carr has completed 70.8 percent of his passes for 1,378 yards, 16 touchdowns and only one interception.
Those are not merely good numbers. Those are championship quarterback numbers.
Carr is throwing with accuracy, anticipation and confidence. He is making the correct reads, distributing the football and refusing to give opposing defenses the turnovers they need to pull an upset.
He completed 14 of 20 passes for 181 yards and three touchdowns against Stanford. Notre Dame did not need him to throw for 400 yards because the running game produced 361 yards.
That is what makes the Irish offense so difficult to defend. Carr does not have to carry the entire team, but he is capable of taking over a game when necessary.
I currently have him among my top four quarterbacks for the next NFL Draft. A strong performance in this environment would further establish him as a first-round prospect.
The evaluation this week is not about his arm talent. We already know he can make NFL throws. I want to see how he manages the noise, pressure and emotion of playing an undefeated top-10 opponent on the road.
NOTRE DAME’S RUNNING GAME
Notre Dame will want to establish its physical superiority early.
The Irish rushed for 361 yards against Stanford and have enough depth in the backfield to rotate runners without losing explosiveness. They can attack the middle, get outside and punish a defense during the second half.
Anthonie Knapp is one of the offensive linemen I will be watching closely. He is physical, athletic and technically sound. Notre Dame’s offensive line understands leverage and angles, and it finishes blocks.
The Irish cannot abandon the run if BYU jumps ahead early. The best way to quiet the crowd and slow the Cougars’ pass rush is to control the line of scrimmage.
If Notre Dame consistently creates second-and-5 situations, Carr will have the entire playbook available.
BEAR BACHMEIER IS SLINGING THE FOOTBALL
Notre Dame’s defense cannot approach Bear Bachmeier as though he is simply an athletic quarterback who can scramble.
Bachmeier is slinging the football.
Against Iowa State, he completed 73 percent of his passes for a season-high 329 yards and two touchdowns. He also rushed for 109 yards, accounting for 438 of BYU’s 506 yards of total offense.
For the season, Bachmeier has completed 66.4 percent of his passes for 1,033 yards, eight touchdowns and only one interception.
He is pushing the football down the field, extending plays and operating with tremendous confidence. What makes him dangerous is that Notre Dame cannot commit entirely to stopping one part of his game.
If the Irish sit back in coverage, Bachmeier can escape the pocket and run. If they bring additional pressure and lose containment, he can create explosive plays with either his arm or his legs.
He is not simply managing games for BYU. He has become the driving force behind the offense.
BYU’S OFFENSE
BYU produced 506 yards against Iowa State but scored only 24 points.
That tells us two things.
The Cougars are capable of moving the football against a quality defense, but they have to become more efficient when they cross midfield. BYU went 0-for-3 on fourth down and failed to turn several promising drives into points.
They cannot leave those points on the field against Notre Dame.
The health of running back LJ Martin will be important. If he remains unavailable or limited, even more of the offensive responsibility will fall on Bachmeier.
BYU can win with Bachmeier carrying the offense, but asking one player to account for nearly 90 percent of the yardage against Notre Dame is a dangerous way to live.
The Cougars must give him some help. They need production from the running backs, clean protection and receivers who win individual matchups against an NFL-caliber secondary.
NOTRE DAME’S DEFENSIVE CHALLENGE
The key for Notre Dame will be generating pressure without losing discipline.
Boubacar Traore is an explosive edge defender capable of changing a game. Francis Brewu provides strength inside, while Kyngstonn Viliamu-Asa gives the Irish speed and physicality at linebacker.
But this cannot become a reckless pass rush.
If both edge defenders race too far up the field, Bachmeier will step through the opening and take off. The Irish must collapse the pocket around him and force him to operate in a confined space.
Notre Dame does not necessarily need six sacks. It needs consistent, disciplined pressure that keeps Bachmeier surrounded.
The defensive line must also make BYU one-dimensional. If the Cougars establish a traditional running game, Notre Dame will be forced to bring an additional defender into the box. That would create more favorable matchups for Bachmeier down the field.
THE NOTRE DAME SECONDARY WILL BE TESTED
Leonard Moore and Tae Johnson are both projected first-round selections on my draft board.
Moore has the size, length, instincts and coverage ability NFL teams want from an outside corner. Johnson has the range and versatility to play deep, cover receivers and attack the line of scrimmage.
This game will provide an excellent test for both players.
Moore’s availability will be something to monitor because he entered the week listed as questionable. If he cannot play or is limited, Bachmeier will immediately look for the matchup created by his absence.
The Irish defensive backs also must maintain their coverage when Bachmeier leaves the pocket. The original play may be defended perfectly, but receivers will eventually uncover if the quarterback is given five or six seconds to throw.
Notre Dame cannot allow BYU to turn broken plays into touchdowns.
BYU’S DEFENSE
BYU’s defense does not have to dominate Notre Dame for four quarters. It must win enough critical situations to give Bachmeier and the offense an opportunity.
The Cougars need to create negative plays on early downs and force Carr into obvious passing situations. If Notre Dame remains ahead of the chains, BYU will have difficulty handling the balance of the Irish offense.
Carr has thrown only one interception this season, so the Cougars cannot count on him giving the football away. They must create pressure, disguise coverages and force him to hesitate.
BYU also must tackle well in space. Notre Dame has too many athletes for the Cougars to surrender additional yards after contact.
This defense will be playing with tremendous energy early. The question is whether it can maintain that intensity after Notre Dame’s offensive line begins leaning on it.
MATCHUP TO WATCH
CJ CARR VS. THE PROVO ENVIRONMENT
The most important matchup may not involve a particular BYU defender.
It will be Carr against the noise, emotion and pressure of the moment.
The crowd will attempt to disrupt Notre Dame’s communication. Carr must get the offense lined up correctly, manage the play clock and avoid burning unnecessary timeouts.
BYU needs the game to become chaotic. Notre Dame wants it to become methodical.
If Carr remains composed and gets the Irish into the correct plays, Notre Dame’s talent advantage will eventually appear. If the noise creates penalties, protection mistakes or turnovers, BYU can take control of the game.
HOW BYU CAN WIN
BYU must turn this into an emotional, four-quarter fight.
The Cougars need to start fast, feed off the crowd and force Notre Dame to play from behind. They cannot allow the Irish to settle into a comfortable rhythm with the running game.
Bachmeier must continue attacking down the field, but he cannot become careless with the football. Notre Dame’s secondary will punish forced throws.
BYU also has to finish drives. Field goals will not be enough, and empty possessions inside Notre Dame territory could become fatal.
Defensively, the Cougars must create at least one turnover and produce negative plays on first down. They cannot allow Carr to spend the entire night operating from manageable down-and-distance situations.
HOW NOTRE DAME WINS
Notre Dame must survive the opening surge.
BYU will play fast and aggressively during the first quarter. The Irish cannot give the crowd additional life with turnovers, penalties or busted assignments.
Notre Dame must establish the run, control the clock and make BYU defend the entire field.
Defensively, the Irish must keep Bachmeier inside the pocket and prevent his scrambles from extending drives. The secondary must remain disciplined when plays break down.
Most importantly, Notre Dame must force BYU to execute long drives. The Cougars thrive when Bachmeier creates explosive plays. If the Irish eliminate those plays and make BYU earn every yard, their depth should begin to take over.
JB’S PREDICTION
BYU is better than some people realize.
The Cougars are undefeated, playing at home and have a quarterback who is throwing the football with confidence. Bachmeier is capable of making this a four-quarter game, and Notre Dame cannot afford to overlook his ability as a passer.
This will not be another 58–7 afternoon for the Irish.
BYU will hit some plays. Bachmeier will move the football, and the crowd will create problems early. I expect the Cougars to make Notre Dame uncomfortable.
But the Irish are bigger, deeper and more talented across the roster.
Notre Dame has the better offensive line, the more complete defense and more NFL prospects. Carr is playing like a first-round quarterback, and he does not make many of the mistakes an underdog needs to complete an upset.
I expect BYU to make it interesting through three quarters. Then Notre Dame’s running game and defensive depth will become the difference.
This is the type of game a national championship team must win.
Notre Dame was my preseason national championship selection, and I am staying with the Irish.
NOTRE DAME 34
BYU 27
