Florida looked like one of the hottest teams in the country after opening the season 4–0 and hammering Ole Miss 52–28. Then the Gators walked into Missouri and were exposed in a 45–17 beatdown.
Now South Carolina must travel to Gainesville for Florida’s homecoming game and face an angry team trying to prove that last weekend was an aberration.
Do not mistake wounded for harmless.
Everything Florida wants to do offensively begins with Jadan Baugh.
The 230-pound junior has rushed for 613 yards and 11 touchdowns while averaging 6.5 yards per carry. He runs with power, breaks arm tackles and has enough acceleration to turn a crease into a touchdown. He is not simply Florida’s best offensive player—he is one of the best running backs in college football.
Against Ole Miss, Baugh ran for 142 yards and three touchdowns as Florida piled up 302 rushing yards.
Missouri provided the blueprint for stopping him. The Tigers crowded the line of scrimmage, controlled the interior gaps and held Baugh to 13 yards on 12 carries. Florida finished with only 42 rushing yards and never established its identity.
Carolina must do the same thing.
If the Gamecocks allow Baugh to reach the second level, this could become another long afternoon for a defense that has struggled to fit the run consistently.
AARON PHILO: MAKE HIM WIN THE GAME
Aaron Philo is a capable quarterback, but Florida does not want the entire offense resting on his right arm.
Philo has thrown for 1,114 yards through five games. He is generally accurate underneath, understands the play-action game and can distribute the ball efficiently when Baugh keeps the defense occupied.
The problem comes when Florida falls behind the chains and Philo is forced into obvious passing situations.
Missouri shut down the run, pressured him and made Florida play left-handed. Philo completed 21 of 34 passes for 197 yards and a touchdown, but much of that production came underneath. He was sacked three times, and Florida punted eight times.
Carolina cannot sit back and allow him to become comfortable. The Gamecocks must attack the pocket, get hands into his throwing lanes and force him to make difficult throws outside the numbers.
DALLAS WILSON IS THE BIG-PLAY THREAT
Freshman receiver Dallas Wilson leads Florida with 302 receiving yards and gives Philo a legitimate vertical weapon.
At 6-foot-3, Wilson has the size and body control to win contested catches, but he is more than a possession receiver. Florida will move him around, manufacture favorable matchups and take shots after establishing the run.
Wilson caught four passes for 66 yards and a touchdown against Missouri. TJ Abrams also showed his explosiveness with a 42-yard touchdown reception.
South Carolina’s safeties cannot become so consumed with stopping Baugh that they lose Wilson behind them. Florida’s play-action game is designed to create exactly that mistake.
THE OFFENSIVE IDENTITY
Jon Sumrall has brought physicality and purpose to Gainesville. Florida wants to establish the line of scrimmage, wear down the defense and create explosive plays off its running game.
Baugh is the hammer, while Duke Clark and London Montgomery provide depth in the backfield. Once the linebackers begin stepping downhill, Philo attacks the vacated space with Wilson, Abrams and tight end Lacota Dippre.
When the Gators stay ahead of schedule, the offense is difficult to defend.
When they lose first down, the operation becomes far more ordinary.
That makes first-down defense critical for South Carolina. Holding Baugh to two or three yards is a win. Allowing him five or six keeps Florida’s entire playbook open.
THE GATOR DEFENSE CAN BE ATTACKED
Florida’s defense has athletes, speed and an aggressive edge presence led by Jayden Woods. However, Missouri revealed serious structural problems.
The Tigers accumulated 560 total yards, 340 passing and 220 rushing, while averaging 8.5 yards per play. Jamal Roberts gashed Florida for 211 yards and three touchdowns, including runs of 77 and 80 yards. Austin Simmons completed 23 of 30 passes for 340 yards and two scores.
That was not one isolated weakness. Missouri beat Florida through the air, on the ground and in situational football.
The Gators were overly aggressive, lost gap integrity and surrendered explosive plays once the first level was broken. Their secondary can also be stressed when the quarterback is protected long enough to work downfield.
South Carolina must resist the temptation to become one-dimensional. Kentucky showed what happens when the Gamecocks abandon offensive rhythm and begin relying on LaNorris Sellers to rescue every possession.
The formula should be simple: run directly at Florida, use controlled passes to stay ahead of the chains and take calculated shots when the safeties begin creeping forward.
WHERE FLORIDA IS VULNERABLE
Florida can be hurt by:
• Interior pressure that disrupts its running game before Baugh gets moving
• Disciplined gap control that forces the offense into third-and-long
• Tempo that prevents the Gators from rotating defensive personnel
• Runs that take advantage of their aggressive pursuit
• Double moves and play-action shots against an attack-minded secondary
• A quarterback willing to take the underneath completion instead of forcing the spectacular play
THE INTANGIBLE
Florida will be playing at home, on homecoming, one week after being embarrassed.
That matters.
The Swamp will be loud, angry and eager for a response. South Carolina cannot give Florida momentum through false starts, pre-snap confusion, busted assignments or another avalanche of self-inflicted mistakes.
The Gamecocks are also coming off a devastating overtime loss to Kentucky. Both teams are wounded, but Florida still has postseason goals within reach. South Carolina is trying to keep its season, and perhaps its coaching staff, from completely unraveling.
This game may be decided by which team responds to disappointment and which one carries it into the next Saturday.
THE ENEMY CAMP VERDICT
Florida is not as dominant as it appeared against Ole Miss, but it is not as helpless as it looked against Missouri.
The Gators remain a physical, dangerous football team built around one of the best running backs in the country. If Baugh controls the game, Florida will control the clock, protect Philo and eventually break South Carolina’s defense.
But Missouri proved that the Gators can be bullied, their defensive discipline can collapse and their offense becomes predictable when the running game disappears.
The blueprint is sitting there for South Carolina.
The question is whether this Gamecock team is disciplined enough and mentally tough enough to follow it for four quarters.
Kickoff is scheduled for 12:45 p.m. Saturday at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium on the SEC Network. Florida enters at 4–1 and ranked No. 16 after falling from No. 8, while South Carolina arrives in Gainesville desperately needing something to stop its season from slipping away.
