Two disappointed football teams walk into Death Valley Saturday night knowing another loss could do serious damage to their season.
No. 10 LSU and No. 23 Texas A&M are both 2-1 overall and 0-1 in the SEC. LSU is trying to recover from a 32-24 loss at Ole Miss, while Texas A&M is coming off a stunning 31-21 home loss to Kentucky.
That changes the entire complexion of this game.
This is no longer simply an early-season matchup between ranked SEC teams. It is a survival game. The winner gets back into the conference and playoff conversation. The loser falls to 0-2 in the SEC and will need almost everything else to go perfectly.
LSU’S PASSING GAME MUST WAKE UP
Sam Leavitt has not played badly enough to create a quarterback controversy, but LSU needs considerably more from him.
Through three games, Leavitt has completed 61.3 percent of his passes for 732 yards, three touchdowns and five interceptions. Those are not the numbers LSU expected from a quarterback playing in Lane Kiffin’s offense.
Against Ole Miss, Leavitt passed for only 158 yards. He made plays with his legs and helped LSU erase a 17-point deficit, but his late interception in the end zone ended the comeback.
Leavitt’s mobility has been one of LSU’s most dependable offensive weapons. He already has six rushing touchdowns. But LSU cannot continue relying on its quarterback to create the majority of its scoring production with his legs.
Trey’Dez Green and Winston Watkins Jr. give LSU legitimate receiving weapons. The Tigers must create easier completions, attack the middle of the field and allow Leavitt to develop some early rhythm.
Most importantly, he has to protect the football.
MARCEL REED REMAINS THE PROBLEM
LSU knows exactly what Marcel Reed can do because it has already experienced it.
In two games against the Tigers, Reed has rushed for 170 yards and five touchdowns. LSU can defend the traditional running game, but Reed changes the math with designed quarterback runs and his ability to escape when a passing play breaks down.
Texas A&M does not need Reed to throw for 350 yards. The Aggies need him to convert third downs, extend possessions and force LSU’s defense to account for all 11 offensive players.
Reed has passed for 632 yards, six touchdowns and three interceptions this season, but he is completing only 59.6 percent of his throws. LSU must make him win this game from the pocket.
The worst thing the Tigers can do is rush recklessly, lose containment and allow Reed to turn broken plays into 20-yard gains.
THE LOSS OF TERRY BUSSEY
Texas A&M will be without Terry Bussey, who suffered a season-ending lower-body injury on the opening kickoff against Kentucky.
That is a significant loss.
Bussey contributed as a receiver, kick returner and punt returner. His absence removes one of the Aggies’ most versatile athletes and puts additional pressure on a receiving group that may also be without Ashton Bethel-Roman.
Mario Craver becomes even more important. LSU must prevent him from creating explosive plays and force Reed to work patiently down the field.
LSU HAS TO RUN THE FOOTBALL
Dilin Jones has rushed for 285 yards through three games, and LSU needs to make him a central part of the game plan.
The Tigers cannot allow Texas A&M’s defensive front to turn this into a series of obvious passing situations. A dependable running game would slow the Aggies’ pass rush, take pressure off Leavitt and keep Reed standing on the sideline.
Lane Kiffin does not have to abandon his creativity. But LSU needs some physical football Saturday night. Run Jones between the tackles, use Leavitt selectively in the quarterback running game and make Texas A&M defend the entire field.
THE REVENGE FACTOR
LSU should not need additional motivation, but last season’s result should still be sitting inside that locker room.
Texas A&M walked into Death Valley and embarrassed LSU, 49-25. That loss ultimately helped bring an end to the Brian Kelly era.
Now LSU gets the Aggies in the same stadium, under the lights, with Lane Kiffin running the program.
If LSU comes out flat after what happened last year and after losing at Ole Miss, then there are much larger problems in Baton Rouge.
JB’S KEYS TO THE GAME
For LSU:
- Keep Reed contained inside the pocket.
- Establish Dilin Jones and the running game.
- Give Leavitt easy completions early.
- Eliminate interceptions and wasted possessions.
- Make Texas A&M handle the noise and pressure of Death Valley.
For Texas A&M:
- Use Reed’s legs to stress LSU’s defense.
- Create pressure without committing extra defenders.
- Find explosive plays despite the loss of Bussey.
- Force Leavitt into obvious passing situations.
- Survive LSU’s opening emotional surge.
JB’S TAKE
Neither quarterback has played consistently enough for me to feel completely comfortable with this prediction.
Reed is the type of quarterback who has given LSU problems, and Texas A&M has already proven it can win in Death Valley. If LSU loses containment and allows Reed to run wild again, the Aggies can absolutely leave Baton Rouge with another victory.
But I expect a different LSU team Saturday night.
The Tigers showed some fight by coming back from a 24-7 deficit against Ole Miss. They did not finish the job, but they did not quit. Back at home, with their season already approaching the edge, I expect LSU’s defense to play faster and more disciplined.
This game will be won by the quarterback who makes fewer mistakes. Leavitt has thrown too many interceptions, while Reed has struggled with his accuracy. Neither team can afford to give away possessions.
Death Valley at night becomes the difference. LSU controls Reed just enough, Jones gives the Tigers balance, and Leavitt makes a couple of important throws in the fourth quarter.
Texas A&M keeps it close, but LSU survives.
JB’S PREDICTION
LSU 30
Texas A&M 24
