Michigan escaped Western Michigan with a 13–12 victory that required one of the most controversial officiating decisions I have ever seen and a Hail Mary on an extra play that never should have happened.
Now the Wolverines have to play Oklahoma.
There won’t be a Big Ten replay booth capable of rescuing Michigan if it plays that poorly again. The Sooners are bigger, faster and substantially more talented than Western Michigan—and they’re bringing one of the most dangerous quarterbacks in the country to Ann Arbor.
John Mateer Has Entered the Heisman Conversation
John Mateer looked outstanding in Oklahoma’s 51–0 destruction of UTEP. He completed 11 of 17 passes for 225 yards, three touchdowns and no interceptions while averaging more than 13 yards per attempt.
Mateer didn’t have to carry the offense or run the football 20 times. He operated efficiently, created explosive plays and got out of the game without taking unnecessary punishment.
That is exactly what Oklahoma needs from him this season.
Michigan’s defense will be a much more legitimate test. The Wolverines remain physical, talented and difficult to run against. But Mateer’s ability to escape pressure and create outside the structure of the play can neutralize an aggressive defensive front.
Michigan must keep him in the pocket and force him to play patiently. If the Wolverines lose contain, Mateer will make them pay with his legs.
What Has Happened to Bryce Underwood?
Bryce Underwood looked nothing like an elite quarterback against Western Michigan.
He completed 12 of 22 passes for 170 yards, with one touchdown, one interception and a fumble. Nearly one-third of those passing yards came on the final 47-yard Hail Mary.
His footwork was inconsistent, his decision-making was questionable and he forced throws that should never have left his hand. He also rushed for 47 yards and a touchdown, but Michigan cannot depend on Underwood manufacturing offense with his legs against Oklahoma.
Brent Venables is going to come after him from every direction. Oklahoma will disguise coverages, change the picture after the snap and force Underwood to process information much faster than he did against Western Michigan.
This is the biggest matchup in the game. If Underwood doesn’t settle down, Oklahoma could make Saturday miserable for him.
Michigan Has to Find Its Ground Game
Michigan managed only 106 rushing yards against Western Michigan. That is unacceptable for a program built around controlling the line of scrimmage and imposing its will physically.
The Wolverines need their ground game to protect Underwood and keep Mateer on the sideline. They cannot put their young quarterback into repeated third-and-long situations and expect him to solve Venables’ defense.
Oklahoma held UTEP to 198 total yards and posted a shutout. UTEP certainly isn’t Michigan, but the Sooners played fast, tackled well and never allowed the Miners to establish any offensive rhythm.
If Michigan cannot run the football, I don’t see how it consistently moves the chains.
Oklahoma’s Offensive Balance
Oklahoma scored on its first eight possessions against UTEP. Running back Lloyd Avant rushed for 79 yards, while Isaiah Sategna III produced 215 all-purpose yards and returned a punt 88 yards for a touchdown.
Sategna is the type of player who can completely change this game. Michigan cannot afford to lose him in coverage or give him space in the return game.
The Sooners do not need Mateer to play Superman. They need to establish the run, stay ahead of the chains and let him attack Michigan when the Wolverines bring additional defenders toward the line of scrimmage.
The Pressure Is Entirely on Michigan
Oklahoma already beat Michigan 24–13 last season. Now the Sooners arrive with confidence while Michigan is trying to explain how it nearly lost to a MAC opponent at home.
The Big House will be loud, and Michigan should play with considerably more urgency. But emotion only carries a team so far. Eventually, Michigan has to block Oklahoma, protect Underwood and complete passes.
Nothing Michigan showed in its opener makes me believe it is ready to do that consistently.
Oklahoma is the more complete team. Mateer is the better quarterback, the Sooners have more ways to create explosive plays and Venables has a defense capable of confusing Underwood from the opening series.
Michigan may keep it close early because of its defense and home-field advantage. But unless the Wolverines make one hell of an improvement in seven days, Oklahoma should take control in the second half.
Prediction: Oklahoma 27, Michigan 16
