Let’s get one thing straight: Lane Kiffin is not going to show Clemson any mercy Saturday night.
This is his first game at LSU, it is in Death Valley, and the entire college football world will be watching. If Kiffin gets Clemson in trouble, he is going to keep his foot on the gas and try to run up the score. He wants to make a statement that LSU has arrived and that his circus of an offseason was worth every damn penny.
Clemson cannot allow this to become a track meet.
LSU is favored by around 10 points, and Kiffin has Sam Leavitt running an offense designed to play fast, create mismatches and punish defensive confusion. Clemson is also walking into Baton Rouge with Christopher Vizzina making only his second career start—and his first in an environment anything like this one.
But Clemson has enough talent to make this interesting. Here is what the Tigers have to do to pull the upset.
Make LSU earn everything
The first priority is eliminating explosive plays.
Kiffin wants easy touchdowns. He wants busted coverages, missed tackles and defensive linemen getting trapped inside while Leavitt escapes around the edge. Clemson cannot give him any of that.
The defensive front must maintain its rush lanes and keep Leavitt from turning broken plays into 25-yard gains. Clemson needs pressure, but it has to be disciplined pressure. Sending six or seven defenders after Leavitt may actually help Kiffin because his offense is built to identify pressure and attack the space it creates.
Clemson needs to pressure him with four, keep him in the pocket and force LSU to put together 10- and 12-play drives. Make a new quarterback, a new offensive line and a new coaching staff execute repeatedly without making a mistake.
LSU rebuilt much of its offensive line during the offseason, making Clemson’s ability to challenge that group one of the defining matchups in this game.
Clemson must run the football
Clemson cannot put this entire game on Vizzina’s shoulders.
The quickest way to get blown out is to go three-and-out several times, give Kiffin additional possessions and leave Clemson’s defense on the field all night. Clemson has to establish enough of a running game to stay ahead of the chains and control the clock.
That does not mean running into a stacked box for two yards just to say you remained balanced. Chad Morris needs to use tempo changes, misdirection, screens and Vizzina’s legs to make LSU defend the entire field.
Clemson needs manageable third downs and drives that last longer than two minutes. Every possession Clemson keeps away from Kiffin is a possession LSU cannot use to run up the score.
Let Vizzina attack—within reason
Clemson cannot win this game by hiding its quarterback.
Vizzina has only one previous start, but he threw for 317 yards and three touchdowns in that game. Clemson also has two legitimate big-play receivers in Bryant Wesco Jr. and T.J. Moore. Wesco has averaged 17.3 yards per reception during his career, and Clemson has openly discussed taking more shots downfield under Morris.
Clemson has to give those receivers opportunities.
Take a couple of deep shots early. Make LSU’s safeties respect the vertical game. Even if Clemson does not connect, it can back the secondary off and create space underneath.
The key is protecting Vizzina from obvious passing situations. If Clemson is constantly facing third-and-nine with the crowd screaming and LSU bringing pressure, the game could get away quickly.
Start fast and quiet the stadium
Clemson cannot spend the first quarter trying to settle into the game.
A bad snap, a false start and two quick three-and-outs could put Clemson down 14-0 before Vizzina ever gets comfortable. Once Kiffin smells blood, he is going to attack even harder.
Clemson needs an early first down, an early completion and ideally the first score. Nothing would help Vizzina more than quieting Tiger Stadium and making LSU feel the pressure of being the favorite.
The longer Clemson stays within one possession, the more interesting this becomes. LSU has all the expectations. Clemson has very little to lose.
Win the turnover battle
This is the nonnegotiable.
Clemson is not talented or experienced enough offensively to give LSU short fields. Vizzina cannot throw two interceptions, and Clemson cannot put the football on the ground.
Defensively, Clemson needs to steal at least one possession. That could be an interception, a strip sack or a fourth-down stop. Whatever form it takes, Clemson probably needs to finish plus-two in turnovers to win this game.
Score touchdowns in the red zone
Field goals are not going to beat LSU unless Clemson’s defense plays an almost perfect game.
When Clemson crosses the LSU 25-yard line, it has to finish the drive with seven points. Kiffin will remain aggressive even if LSU builds a lead. He is not going to shut down the offense and protect a 10-point advantage.
Clemson probably needs to reach 28 points to have a legitimate chance.
The bottom line
Clemson’s path is not complicated, but it is narrow.
Control the pace. Run the football. Prevent explosive plays. Pressure Leavitt without losing containment. Give Wesco and Moore chances downfield. Protect the football and turn red-zone opportunities into touchdowns.
Most importantly, Clemson cannot get caught trying to play Lane Kiffin’s game. LSU wants chaos, speed and a scoreboard that keeps spinning. Clemson needs to make this physical, frustrating and uncomfortable.
If Clemson gets into the fourth quarter within one score, the pressure shifts entirely to LSU. That is where an upset becomes possible.
But if Clemson gives Kiffin short fields and early explosive plays, he will not simply try to win. He will try to embarrass them.
