The Atlanta Falcons walk into Lambeau Field tonight at 0–2, and let’s not sugarcoat it:
They’ve looked like shit offensively.
Atlanta has scored one touchdown in two games and is coming off an embarrassing 34–3 loss to Carolina.
But I’m not sure the offense we’ve watched the first two weeks is the offense Green Bay is going to see tonight.
Because Michael Penix Jr. is back.
And that changes this football game.
HERE COMES PENIX
Cooper Rush simply wasn’t getting it done.
Through two games, Atlanta produced only 288 passing yards while throwing five interceptions. The Falcons are averaging just four yards per offensive play.
You aren’t beating many NFL teams doing that.
So Atlanta is handing the football back to Penix, who will make his first start since suffering the ACL injury that ended his 2025 season.
I’m not expecting Penix to walk into Lambeau after that long layoff and suddenly look like Dan Marino.
There’s going to be rust.
There may be some ugly throws.
There may be some hesitation when pressure gets around his legs for the first time.
But there’s something Penix gives Atlanta that has been missing:
The threat of attacking the damn football field vertically.
That matters because Atlanta has weapons.
BIJAN HAS TO BE THE CENTERPIECE
If I’m Atlanta, this game starts with Bijan Robinson.
Period.
The Falcons have actually run the football fairly well despite everything going wrong around them, producing 277 rushing yards through two games.
And putting Penix back there doesn’t mean you suddenly ask him to throw it 45 times.
I’d do the opposite.
Run Bijan.
Get Penix comfortable.
Use play-action.
Move the pocket.
Get Drake London involved.
Let Penix hit a few easy throws and gradually start stretching Green Bay vertically.
Make the Packers defend the entire field instead of teeing off on a quarterback trying to rescue the offense.
GREEN BAY HAS ITS OWN PROBLEMS
The Packers are 1–1 after escaping New York with a 20–17 overtime win.
And I’m not completely sold on this Green Bay offense either.
Jordan Love has thrown for 532 yards and four touchdowns, and Christian Watson is averaging nearly 19 yards per reception with three touchdowns.
That’s dangerous.
Green Bay can create explosive plays through the air.
But the Packers haven’t been able to run the damn football.
They’ve produced only 129 rushing yards through two games, averaging 3.3 yards per carry.
That’s a problem.
Because if Atlanta can make Green Bay one-dimensional, suddenly we’re asking Jordan Love to carry the entire offense.
That’s when Atlanta has a chance to turn this into the kind of ugly Thursday-night football game that favors the underdog.
THE MATCHUP I’M WATCHING
Atlanta’s running game against Green Bay’s front.
This is where the Falcons have to win.
Bijan can’t get 12 carries tonight.
Give him the football.
Make Green Bay tackle him for four quarters.
And use the running game to protect Penix from obvious passing situations.
Third-and-3?
I’ll take my chances.
Third-and-9 with Penix returning from a major knee injury and Lambeau screaming?
That’s exactly where Green Bay wants Atlanta.
ATLANTA’S DEFENSE HAS A CHANCE
Green Bay’s inability to establish a running game gives Atlanta an opportunity.
But there’s a major problem in the secondary.
A.J. Terrell is out and has been placed on injured reserve.
Now you’re asking an already struggling football team to deal with Love, Christian Watson and Matthew Golden without its best corner.
That’s where this thing can get away from Atlanta.
If Love starts hitting explosive plays outside, I don’t know if Atlanta has enough offense to chase Green Bay all night.
The Falcons need to make this ugly.
GREEN BAY IS BEAT UP TOO
The Packers aren’t exactly walking into this thing healthy.
Jayden Reed is out.
Starting guard Aaron Banks is out.
Green Bay also has injuries along the defensive front.
That’s another reason I think Atlanta needs to attack this game physically.
Don’t turn this into a track meet.
Turn it into a fistfight.
THE KEY FOR ATLANTA
This isn’t complicated.
Take the football out of Penix’s hands early so you can put it back into his hands later.
That sounds contradictory, but it isn’t.
Let Bijan establish the game.
Let Penix settle down.
Let him complete some easy throws.
Then start taking shots.
If Penix gets comfortable, Atlanta suddenly becomes a hell of a lot more interesting offensively than what we’ve watched the first two weeks.
THE KEY FOR GREEN BAY
Make Penix beat you immediately.
Load the box.
Attack Bijan.
Put Atlanta into third-and-long and bring pressure after a quarterback playing his first game since reconstructive knee surgery.
If Green Bay can make Atlanta abandon the running game before halftime, I think the Packers control this football game.
JB’S PREDICTION
I think Atlanta is going to look better tonight.
Maybe considerably better.
Penix gives this offense something it simply hasn’t had, and Bijan Robinson is good enough to make Green Bay respect the running game.
But I’m not ready to take a quarterback coming off a major knee injury, making his first start in almost a year, and expect him to walk into Lambeau Field and fix everything that’s wrong with an 0–2 football team.
Green Bay has its own flaws.
That’s why I don’t expect a blowout.
But Love has been playing, Green Bay is at home, and Atlanta’s secondary just lost A.J. Terrell.
Eventually, I think that becomes the difference.
PACKERS 27
FALCONS 20
Atlanta looks like a different football team with Penix.
But Green Bay sends them home 0–3.
