Friday night brings an intriguing ACC matchup between two undefeated teams, but they arrive with very different expectations.
No. 5 Miami enters Winston-Salem looking every bit like a national championship contender. Wake Forest enters with confidence, a veteran roster and nothing to lose. The Demon Deacons are significant underdogs, but a sold-out stadium and a national television audience create exactly the kind of atmosphere where favorites can become uncomfortable.
THE QUARTERBACK MATCHUP
Darian Mensah has been nearly flawless through Miami’s first two games, completing 91 percent of his passes for 653 yards, eight touchdowns and no interceptions. He has looked calm, decisive and completely in command of the offense.
His connection with Malachi Toney has quickly become one of the most dangerous combinations in college football. Toney already has 330 receiving yards and four touchdowns despite playing limited snaps because of Miami’s lopsided victories.
Wake Forest counters with Gio Lopez, who has thrown for 575 yards, four touchdowns and no interceptions. Lopez is also a legitimate threat with his legs, leading Wake Forest with 13 carries and scoring two rushing touchdowns against Purdue.
Wake cannot match Miami’s overall talent, but Lopez gives the Demon Deacons a quarterback capable of extending plays and taking advantage of Miami’s depleted secondary.
WHEN MIAMI HAS THE BALL
Wake Forest cannot allow Mensah to stand comfortably in the pocket and distribute the football. If that happens, this game could get away from the Demon Deacons quickly.
Wake’s defense is experienced, physical and active, but Miami presents problems at every level. Mensah can attack the perimeter with Toney, while Mark Fletcher Jr., Marty Brown and freshman Javian Mallory give the Hurricanes enough strength and depth to punish light defensive boxes.
The Demon Deacons must create pressure without constantly exposing their secondary to one-on-one coverage. They also have to tackle immediately after the catch. Miami’s athletes turn short completions into explosive plays better than almost anyone in the country.
WHEN WAKE FOREST HAS THE BALL
This is where the game becomes interesting.
Miami is without several defensive backs, including cornerbacks O.J. Frederique, Xavier Lucas and Ja’Boree Antoine. Wake Forest must test those replacements early with Carlos Hernandez, who is averaging 23 yards per reception.
Lopez’s mobility could also create problems if Miami’s defensive front becomes overly aggressive. Wake should use designed quarterback runs, misdirection and quick passes to slow the Hurricanes’ pass rush and keep the offense out of obvious passing situations.
However, Wake cannot afford to become one-dimensional. If Miami stops the run and forces Lopez into repeated third-and-long situations, the Hurricanes’ defensive front will take control.
KEYS FOR MIAMI
- Start fast and remove the crowd from the game.
- Protect the football. Miami enters the game with a negative turnover margin despite dominating its first two opponents.
- Prevent Lopez from extending drives with his legs.
- Establish the running game and force Wake Forest to bring additional defenders into the box.
- Protect Miami’s inexperienced defensive backs by creating pressure up front.
KEYS FOR WAKE FOREST
- Shorten the game by sustaining drives and controlling the clock.
- Generate pressure on Mensah without relying heavily on blitzes.
- Attack Miami’s depleted secondary with Hernandez.
- Force at least two turnovers.
- Keep Miami from creating the quick-strike touchdowns that can turn a competitive game into a rout.
THE BOTTOM LINE
Wake Forest is better than the point spread suggests. The Demon Deacons are experienced, physical and capable of making Miami uncomfortable—especially during the opening half.
But Wake’s biggest problem is that Miami does not have one obvious weakness to attack. Even if the Demon Deacons create some success against the injured secondary, they still have to find a way to slow Mensah, Toney and an offense averaging 61 points and more than 700 yards per game.
Wake Forest may land a few punches, but Miami has too much talent, depth and firepower over four quarters.
PREDICTION: MIAMI 45, WAKE FOREST 24
