I’m not picking Louisville to beat Ole Miss.

Let me get that out of the way right now.

But the more I look at this game, the more I think Ole Miss better buckle the damn chin straps because this has all the ingredients of a game that could get very uncomfortable.

And maybe even become the first big upset of the college football season.

The first thing that jumps out at me is Louisville’s running game.

I’ve already talked about Isaac Brown as one of my players to watch, and there’s a reason for it. Louisville can run the football, and that may be exactly how you want to attack an Ole Miss defense that is reconstructing its defensive front.

Run the football. Control the clock. Stay ahead of the chains. Keep Trinidad Chambliss standing on the sideline.

That’s the formula.

And I don’t think Louisville is going to walk into this game intimidated by the Ole Miss name or that number beside their name.

This is a Louisville team that went into Miami last season and beat the Hurricanes. They also had several close losses down the stretch. When I went back and looked at this team more closely, what stood out to me was just how close Louisville was to having a considerably different season.

They weren’t miles away from being an ACC championship contender.

They were a couple of players and a handful of plays away.

Now look at the other sideline.

Ole Miss has undergone a tremendous amount of change.

Lane Kiffin is gone. Charlie Weis Jr. is gone. There have been other changes on the offensive staff as well. And while I don’t expect Ole Miss to suddenly throw its offensive identity in the trash, there are going to be differences.

There have to be.

Different coaches have different philosophies. They call games differently. They make adjustments differently. They react differently when somebody punches them in the mouth.

Trinidad Chambliss is still Trinidad Chambliss, and he is the biggest reason I’m not picking Louisville outright. I think he is one of the best quarterbacks in college football and capable of taking over a game.

But even a great quarterback can find himself in trouble when the other team controls possession, runs the football and turns the game into a four-quarter street fight.

And there’s something else that makes this game particularly important for Ole Miss.

They need this one.

If Ole Miss is going to make the College Football Playoff, this is the type of game they cannot afford to give away.

There are too many big matchups waiting for them later in the season. Lose this one and suddenly Ole Miss has put itself in a position where it has to steal a game somewhere else on the schedule to make up for it.

That’s a hell of a lot of pressure to put on yourself after Week 1.

I still think Ole Miss wins.

But I’m not nearly as comfortable with that prediction as I was when I first started looking at this game.

Louisville has a running game that can attack an Ole Miss weakness. Ole Miss is breaking in significant changes on both sides of the football. It’s the first game of the season. And Louisville has already demonstrated that it can walk into a game against a highly regarded opponent and punch them right in the mouth.

Sometimes upsets happen because one team is simply better than everybody thought.

Other times they happen because several little things come together at exactly the right time.

And when I look at Louisville and Ole Miss, I see some storm clouds starting to gather.

I’m not calling the upset.

But Ole Miss has officially been put on JB’s Upset Alert.