First-Rounders Trending Up After Two Weeks of the Preseason

Two weeks of preseason football isn’t enough to tell us who is going to be a star in the NFL. I know that. You know that. And every coach in the league knows that.

But it is enough to start seeing some things.

I’ve spent a big part of my life evaluating football players, and one thing I learned a long time ago is that I’m not necessarily looking for statistics in these situations. I’m looking for traits. Does the speed translate? Does the strength translate? Does the player look comfortable? Does he look like he belongs?

So after two weeks, it’s time to open the market.

Here is my first JB’s Rookie Stock Report on the 2026 first-rounders.

📈 BUY — TY SIMPSON, QB, RAMS

This may be my favorite stock right now.

Simpson went 21-of-25 for 190 yards and two touchdowns in his preseason debut without turning the football over.

Forget the numbers for a second.

He looked comfortable.

That’s what caught my attention.

There is a difference between a rookie quarterback completing passes and a rookie quarterback looking like he understands what he’s seeing. Simpson looked decisive, controlled and comfortable operating an NFL offense.

I’m buying.

STOCK: 🔥 STRONG BUY

📈 BUY — ARVELL REESE, LB, GIANTS

This kid looks like an NFL linebacker.

Period.

The size, speed, range and explosiveness that made Reese a top-five pick are showing up already. More importantly, he doesn’t appear overwhelmed by the mental side of playing NFL defense.

That’s usually what slows these young linebackers down.

Reese appears to be accelerating through that learning curve.

STOCK: ⬆️ BUY

📈 BUY — DAVID BAILEY, EDGE, JETS

Now we’re talking about one of my favorite things to evaluate — an edge player.

Bailey recorded his first preseason sack in Week 2, but I’m more interested in how he’s playing.

The speed is there. The power is there. And he’s showing that he isn’t simply a pass-rush specialist who disappears when teams run at him.

If Bailey continues developing his speed-to-power game, the Jets may have themselves a problem for opposing offensive tackles.

STOCK: ⬆️ BUY

📈 BUY — MONROE FREELING, OT, PANTHERS

Offensive linemen don’t make highlight reels very often, but this is exactly the kind of player I pay attention to during preseason.

Freeling has been pushed toward the starting lineup, and so far he looks like he belongs there.

He’s showing the movement skills you want in pass protection along with enough strength to move people in the running game.

When a rookie offensive tackle starts looking comfortable against NFL bodies this early, I pay attention.

STOCK: ⬆️ BUY

📈 BUY — MALACHI LAWRENCE, EDGE, COWBOYS

Another edge guy who has my attention.

Lawrence produced two defensive stops and a pressure in only 17 snaps during his preseason opener.

That’s what I call making your snaps count.

I don’t care if a guy gets 50 snaps against backups and piles up statistics. Show me somebody who gets limited opportunities and affects football plays.

Lawrence has done that.

STOCK: ⬆️ BUY

📈 BUY — AKHEEM MESIDOR, EDGE, CHARGERS

This is another one where you have to look beyond the box score.

Mesidor hasn’t had a huge workload, but when he’s been on the field, he’s flashed.

That’s exactly what preseason is supposed to be about for these rookies.

Show me something.

Give me a reason to want to see you against better competition.

Mesidor has done that.

STOCK: ⬆️ BUY

➡️ HOLD — DILLON THIENEMAN, S, BEARS

I’m not selling this stock.

But I’m not buying a truckload of it yet either.

Thieneman has shown the range and versatility that made him a first-round pick, but there have also been some rookie moments.

That’s expected at safety.

There is a lot going on back there, and mistakes tend to become very visible.

The athletic ability is obvious. Now I want to see the consistency.

STOCK: ➡️ HOLD

📈 BUY — PETER WOODS, DT, CHIEFS

Woods is interesting because his second preseason game was considerably more encouraging than his first.

That’s exactly what you want to see.

Improvement.

He showed quickness, strong hands and the ability to get off blocks and disrupt the quarterback.

Defensive tackles sometimes take a little longer because suddenly everybody across from them is strong.

Woods appears to be adjusting.

STOCK: ⬆️ BUY

➡️ HOLD — FERNANDO MENDOZA, QB, RAIDERS

The No. 1 overall pick doesn’t have to look like Patrick Mahomes in August.

He just needs to look like he belongs.

Mendoza went 10-of-16 for 97 yards and a touchdown in his debut without throwing an interception.

Nothing spectacular.

Nothing alarming.

And sometimes that’s exactly what you want from a rookie quarterback.

I’m holding this stock because I want to see more.

STOCK: ➡️ HOLD

📉 SELL — CARNELL TATE, WR, TITANS

Don’t misunderstand me here.

I’m not saying Carnell Tate can’t play football.

I’m saying we’re talking about the No. 4 overall pick, and after two preseason games he still doesn’t have a reception.

That’s enough to raise my eyebrow.

There may be chemistry issues with Cam Ward. There may be circumstances we’re not seeing. And Tate certainly has enough talent to turn this around quickly.

But this is the stock market.

We’re evaluating what we’ve seen right now.

And right now?

I’m selling.

STOCK: 📉 SELL

JB’S TOP FIVE STOCKS

If I had to put my imaginary money on five first-round rookies after two weeks:

1. Ty Simpson — QB, Rams 🔥
2. Arvell Reese — LB, Giants ⬆️
3. David Bailey — EDGE, Jets ⬆️
4. Monroe Freeling — OT, Panthers ⬆️
5. Malachi Lawrence — EDGE, Cowboys ⬆️

And Simpson is the one I’m watching closest.

Preseason football can fool you. I’ve seen August superstars disappear when the games start counting.

But traits don’t lie.

Speed translates. Power translates. Movement translates. Processing translates.

And after two weeks, we’re starting to see which of these first-round picks brought those traits with them to the NFL.

The market is officially open.

— JB