THE PATH TO THE PLAYOFF: Can Nine Wins Get South Carolina In?

Everybody wants to talk about South Carolina winning 10 games this season.

Maybe they can.

But I’m not sure they have to.

I think the more interesting question is whether South Carolina can get to nine wins and put together a résumé good enough to make the College Football Playoff.

And I believe they can.

But here’s the catch: not all 9-3 records are created equal.

If South Carolina is going to lose three football games this year, they better lose the right damn three—and they better beat somebody along the way that makes the playoff committee sit up and take notice.

Let’s look at the path.

FIRST, WIN THE GAMES YOU’RE SUPPOSED TO WIN

I’m putting five games in this category:

Kent State
Towson
Mississippi State
Kentucky
Arkansas

I’m not saying all five will necessarily be easy. This is college football, and we’ve all seen enough crazy Saturdays to know better than that.

But if we’re sitting here talking about South Carolina as a playoff team, those have to be wins.

Period.

You can’t lose to Kentucky and then start explaining to me why you deserve an at-large playoff bid.

Win those five and you’re already more than halfway there.

Now it gets interesting.

SEVEN GAMES WILL DEFINE THE SEASON

The remaining seven are:

at Alabama
at Florida
Tennessee
at Oklahoma
Texas A&M
Georgia
at Clemson

There’s your season.

There’s your résumé.

And there’s your opportunity.

To get to 9-3, South Carolina needs to find four wins in those seven games.

That’s certainly not easy.

But I don’t think it’s impossible, either.

BEAT FLORIDA

I’ve said before that I think Florida may be better than people are giving them credit for, and going into Gainesville is never something I’m going to pencil in as an automatic win.

But if South Carolina wants nine victories, this is one they probably need.

Beat Florida and now you’re looking for three more victories from Alabama, Tennessee, Oklahoma, Texas A&M, Georgia and Clemson.

That’s where you have to steal some.

YOU NEED A SIGNATURE WIN

This may be the most important part of the entire equation.

Going 9-3 isn’t enough by itself.

South Carolina needs somebody hanging on the wall.

Beat Alabama in Tuscaloosa?

Now you’ve got my attention.

Beat Georgia?

Absolutely.

Beat Texas A&M?

Depending on the kind of season they’re having, that could be huge.

Beat Clemson in the final game of the season?

You better believe the committee will notice that one.

And if South Carolina manages to beat two of those teams while finishing 9-3, now we’re having a very different conversation.

Because the committee isn’t simply going to look at the number nine.

They’re going to look at who you beat.

THE THREE LOSSES MATTER TOO

This is something people sometimes overlook.

There’s a difference between losing to Georgia, Alabama and Oklahoma and losing to Kentucky, Arkansas and Florida.

The record says 9-3 either way.

The résumé doesn’t.

If South Carolina takes care of everybody it’s supposed to beat, knocks off a couple of nationally ranked teams and its three losses come against legitimate playoff-caliber opponents, I think the Gamecocks would have a hell of an argument.

Especially playing an SEC schedule like this one.

SELLERS HAS TO BE THE DIFFERENCE

And ultimately, this probably comes down to LaNorris Sellers.

There are going to be Saturdays when South Carolina isn’t the most talented team on the field.

That’s when your quarterback has to steal you a football game.

If Sellers is going to be considered one of the best quarterbacks in the SEC, there are probably going to be two or three games this season when South Carolina needs him to be the reason they won.

Not manage the game.

Win the damn thing.

Make the throw on third-and-eight.

Turn a broken play into 25 yards.

Put together the fourth-quarter drive when everybody in the stadium knows the football is going to be in his hands.

That’s what great quarterbacks do.

And that’s probably what it’s going to take.

THE PATH IS THERE

South Carolina doesn’t need to go undefeated.

They don’t necessarily need to win 10 games.

But they absolutely cannot waste opportunities.

Take care of Kent State, Towson, Mississippi State, Kentucky and Arkansas.