I’ve evaluated quarterbacks long enough to know that college production and NFL projection are not the same damn thing.
A quarterback can lead the Heisman race without being the first quarterback selected. Another can have inconsistent college statistics and still become a top-10 pick because NFL scouts fall in love with his arm, size, athleticism and potential.
With that in mind, here is my first NFL Draft Stock Report of the season.
BLUE-CHIP STOCK: ARCH MANNING, TEXAS
Arch Manning still owns the best overall draft stock in this quarterback class.
Forget the last name for a moment. Manning is 6-foot-4, possesses an NFL arm, moves exceptionally well and can create plays outside the pocket. He has the physical package NFL teams want from a potential franchise quarterback.
The problem is consistency.
His feet and internal clock can become hurried under pressure, leading to routine misses and questionable decisions. Manning must prove that his best stretches represent who he has become—not merely flashes of what he could eventually be.
The matchup against Ohio State is enormous. If Manning performs well against an elite defense filled with future NFL players, his stock will become even stronger.
Stock: Holding at No. 1
STRONG BUY: DANTE MOORE, OREGON
Dante Moore is close enough to Manning that he could become the top quarterback on my board.
Moore may be the most natural passer in the class. He has a clean release, excellent touch and probably throws the best deep ball of any draft-eligible quarterback.
His biggest question is how he responds when the pocket begins collapsing. At times, Moore feels pressure too quickly and allows the rush to disrupt his progressions.
If he proves he can remain composed against pressure, he has legitimate No. 1 overall pick ability.
Stock: Rising
FASTEST-RISING STOCK: DARIAN MENSAH, MIAMI
Nobody has improved his stock more during the opening weeks than Darian Mensah.
Mensah has been a damn machine. His accuracy, anticipation, ball placement and command of Miami’s offense have been outstanding. He processes the field quickly and rarely puts the football in danger.
He currently leads the Heisman conversation, but NFL scouts will want to see him duplicate this production against elite defenses. They will also evaluate how he performs when forced off his first read and when the pocket becomes uncomfortable.
At this point, however, Mensah has moved firmly into my first-round group.
Stock: Soaring
STRONG BUY: JULIAN SAYIN, OHIO STATE
Julian Sayin may be the most accurate quarterback in college football.
He completed 77 percent of his passes last season and opened this year by completing 21-of-25 for 320 yards and three touchdowns.
Sayin throws a catchable football, understands timing and knows how to distribute the ball throughout an offense. It certainly helps to have Jeremiah Smith and Ohio State’s collection of weapons, but Sayin still has to make the throws.
His questions involve his size and his ability to create when the original play breaks down. Today’s game at Texas will tell us much more than anything we saw against Ball State.
Stock: Rising toward the first round
HIGH-RISK, HIGH-REWARD: LANORRIS SELLERS, SOUTH CAROLINA
LaNorris Sellers has the most fascinating evaluation in this class.
At 6-foot-3 and approximately 240 pounds, Sellers is built like a tight end, runs like a linebacker and may possess the strongest arm of any draft-eligible quarterback.
The physical ceiling is enormous. If everything comes together, an NFL team could fall in love with him and select him inside the top 10.
But he is not there yet.
Sellers must improve his deep-ball placement, throw with greater anticipation and stop taking unnecessary sacks. Some of those sacks resulted from poor offensive-line play, but others came from holding the football too long and trusting his athletic ability to rescue the play.
NFL teams will love the tools. Now Sellers must prove he is developing into a complete quarterback.
Stock: Volatile, with tremendous upside
RISING STOCK: JAYDEN MAIAVA, USC
Jayden Maiava has the size, athletic ability and production to force his way into the first-round conversation.
Playing in USC’s offense gives him opportunities to display his arm talent and create explosive plays. The next step is producing against better defenses and proving he can succeed when everything isn’t operating perfectly around him.
Stock: Rising
HOLD: CJ CARR, NOTRE DAME
CJ Carr is polished, mechanically sound and comfortable operating from the pocket.
He doesn’t possess the overwhelming physical tools of Manning or Sellers, but he understands how to play the position. He works through progressions, throws with timing and generally makes intelligent decisions.
Because he is more of a performance prospect, Carr must be consistently excellent. He cannot depend upon rare arm strength or athleticism to excuse poor games.
Stock: Holding near the first-round line
STOCK TO WATCH: SAM LEAVITT, LSU
Sam Leavitt is tough, athletic and capable of hurting defenses with both his arm and legs.
Playing in Lane Kiffin’s offense should help his development and give NFL scouts plenty of examples of him operating modern passing concepts. He still needs to become more consistent as a passer, but the tools are present.
Stock: Gradually rising
NEW STOCK ON THE MARKET: AUSTIN SIMMONS, MISSOURI
Austin Simmons introduced himself to the national audience against Kansas.
He completed 19-of-29 passes for 292 yards, threw three touchdowns without an interception and produced two 100-yard receivers in a hostile road rivalry game.
That performance showed arm talent, composure and the ability to distribute the football instead of locking onto one receiver.
Simmons isn’t a first-round quarterback today, but he has officially entered the conversation. If he continues performing this way against SEC competition, his name will climb quickly.
Stock: Buy early
EXPERIENCED STOCK: JOHN MATEER, OKLAHOMA
John Mateer brings experience, mobility and the ability to create outside the structure of the offense.
His size and overall consistency may prevent him from becoming a top-10 selection, but he has an opportunity to change that evaluation against SEC competition.
A big performance at Michigan would move his stock significantly.
Stock: Holding with room to rise
MY CURRENT FIRST-ROUND GROUP
If the NFL Draft were held today, my first-round quarterback group would be:
- Arch Manning
- Dante Moore
- Darian Mensah
- Julian Sayin
Sellers, Maiava and Carr are standing directly outside that group.
Sellers remains the ultimate wild card. He could finish this season as a second-day developmental prospect, or he could improve his accuracy and pocket management enough to become one of the first quarterbacks selected.
That is why draft evaluation is so different from ranking college quarterbacks.
The NFL doesn’t only draft the player you are today. It drafts the player it believes you can become tomorrow.
