There are no official CFP rankings yet, so this projection uses the current AP poll and identifies the present leaders in each conference race. The 12-team format awards automatic bids to the five highest-ranked conference champions, with seven at-large selections. Teams are then seeded directly by ranking.
First-Round Byes
- Texas — Projected SEC champion
- Georgia — At-large
- Notre Dame — At-large
- Ole Miss — At-large
Those four have created the clearest separation from the field. Texas owns the best win after beating Ohio State. Georgia remains Georgia. Notre Dame is undefeated, and Ole Miss strengthened its résumé by beating LSU.
First-Round Games
No. 12 Boise State at No. 5 Indiana
Indiana is the current Big Ten frontrunner. Boise State enters as the projected highest-ranked champion outside the Power Four.
No. 11 Texas Tech at No. 6 Miami
Miami is my projected ACC champion, while Texas Tech earns an at-large bid from the Big 12.
No. 10 LSU at No. 7 Ohio State
This would be the heavyweight matchup of the opening round. Both have a loss, but both still possess championship-level talent.
No. 9 BYU at No. 8 Alabama
BYU receives the automatic bid as the projected Big 12 champion. Alabama hosts as one of the seven at-large teams.
Projected Quarterfinals
- Texas vs. Alabama/BYU winner
- Ole Miss vs. Indiana/Boise State winner
- Georgia vs. Ohio State/LSU winner
- Notre Dame vs. Miami/Texas Tech winner
The First Four Out
- USC
- Penn State
- Tennessee
- Utah
Still Alive
Louisville, Iowa, Michigan, Missouri, Oregon, Florida, SMU, Texas A&M and Mississippi State remain within striking distance—but most cannot afford another loss.
JB’s Bottom Line
The SEC currently controls five of the 12 spots: Texas, Georgia, Ole Miss, Alabama and LSU. The Big Ten has three with Indiana, Ohio State and USC, although USC is presently the first team out once Boise State takes the fifth automatic bid.
The field is still extremely fluid, but the dividing line is already becoming visible. The top four have some breathing room. Everyone from Indiana through Texas Tech is fighting for home-field advantage or survival—and the teams immediately outside the bracket are one major victory away from crashing the party.
