The Race to the Natty

We are only two weeks into the college football season, so nobody has secured a seat in the College Football Playoff. But we have seen enough football to begin separating legitimate national championship contenders from teams still living off preseason expectations.

The new playoff format guarantees places for the champions of the ACC, Big Ten, Big 12 and SEC, along with the highest-ranked team from the Group of Six. Notre Dame is also guaranteed a berth if it finishes inside the top 12. The remaining seven spots will be awarded to the highest-ranked at-large teams.

That creates multiple paths into the playoff—but getting into the field and being capable of winning the national championship are two different things.

Here is where the Race to the Natty stands today.

Setting the Pace

Miami

Miami remains my No. 1 team because it has looked like the most complete football team in the country.

Darian Mensah is playing at a Heisman level, Malachi Toney has established himself as one of the most dangerous playmakers in college football, and the Hurricanes have been explosive without becoming one-dimensional.

There will be tougher tests ahead, but Miami currently controls the ACC race and its playoff path. The Hurricanes do not need help. They simply need to keep winning and avoid the type of inexplicable conference loss that has haunted Miami teams in the past.

The talent is there. The quarterback is there. The path is there.

Now Miami has to prove it can handle success.

Texas

Texas owns the best victory in college football after coming from 20 points down to beat Ohio State.

That victory gives the Longhorns something no other contender currently possesses: a win over the team that entered the weekend ranked No. 1.

But Texas was also outplayed for three quarters before Arch Manning and the offense came alive. The comeback showed toughness, confidence and championship composure. It did not necessarily prove that Texas is the best team in the country.

What it did prove is that the Longhorns can take a punch without folding.

Texas now has room for a loss, provided it does not turn into two. Beat the teams it should beat, remain in the SEC championship race and the Longhorns will be in the playoff.

Georgia

Georgia has done exactly what a championship contender should do against overmatched opponents: bury them.

The Bulldogs may not possess the star power of some previous Georgia teams, but they remain physical along both lines, can run the football and are coached by Kirby Smart. Until somebody proves otherwise, Georgia remains one of the safest bets in the country.

The Bulldogs have not collected a defining victory yet, but that opportunity will come through the SEC schedule.

Georgia does not have to impress anyone in September. It has to survive the SEC and be playing its best football in November.

LSU

LSU remains one of the most talented teams in the country, but the Tigers have not consistently played like a national championship team.

The defense looks improved, and LSU possesses enough offensive talent to beat almost anyone. The concern is whether the Tigers can maintain that level of play for four quarters against elite competition.

The trip to Ole Miss will tell us considerably more.

A victory would establish LSU as one of the strongest contenders in the country. A loss would not eliminate the Tigers, but it would remove their margin for error before the heart of the SEC schedule even begins.

Texas A&M

Texas A&M may be the most overlooked championship contender in the field.

Mike Elko has built this team around physical football, line play and a defense capable of keeping the Aggies in difficult games. They have not yet produced the defining victory that forces the rest of the country to pay attention, but the opportunity is coming.

The Aggies control their path. If they handle business and remain in the SEC championship race, they will not need to campaign for a playoff invitation.

The biggest question is whether Texas A&M can remain consistent once the weekly grind of conference play begins.

Firmly in the Race

Notre Dame

Notre Dame was my preseason national championship pick, and nothing through two weeks has forced me to back away from it.

The Irish are balanced, experienced and riding a 12-game winning streak. They also have the advantage of avoiding a conference championship game.

Notre Dame’s path is straightforward. Finish inside the top 12 and the Irish are guaranteed a playoff berth. Take care of Michigan State, BYU, Miami and the rest of the schedule, and Notre Dame could earn a first-round home game or possibly one of the top four seeds.

The Irish do not need style points right now. They need to avoid the one bad loss that traditionally complicates life for an independent.

Indiana

The defending national champion has now won 18 consecutive games, yet Indiana still seems to be treated like a program waiting to turn back into a pumpkin.

At some point, people have to stop calling Indiana a surprise.

The Hoosiers are undefeated, confident and no longer learning how to win important games. They know how to finish a championship season because they just did it.

Indiana’s schedule will become more demanding, but until someone beats the Hoosiers, they belong in the center of the national championship conversation.

Ohio State

Ohio State is not out of anything.

The Buckeyes controlled Texas for most of the game before allowing the Longhorns to steal it in the fourth quarter. Losing a one-point road game to the current No. 1 team is not a résumé killer.

But it does change the equation.

Ohio State has surrendered its margin for error. A second loss—especially one inside the Big Ten—could place the Buckeyes in a crowded at-large discussion. Ryan Day also has to answer another round of questions about his team’s inability to finish high-profile games.

The talent is championship caliber. The question is whether Ohio State can close when the pressure is highest.

Ole Miss

Ole Miss has done enough to remain undefeated, but now comes the test that will define its early season.

Beat LSU and the Rebels move directly into the front line of contenders. Lose at home and they enter the group of SEC teams fighting for a limited number of at-large positions.

Trinidad Chambliss gives Ole Miss the quarterback play needed to compete with anyone. Lane Kiffin gives the Rebels an offensive advantage most Saturdays.

Now they need a victory that proves this team is capable of more than simply making the playoff.

Alabama

Alabama remains dangerous because of its talent, depth and ability to overwhelm opponents at the line of scrimmage.

The Crimson Tide looked much better after a slow start against Kentucky, but I am not ready to declare Alabama “back” based on one strong stretch of football.

This team still has questions to answer, particularly when it faces an opponent capable of matching its personnel.

Alabama is absolutely in the playoff race. Whether it is truly capable of winning the Natty remains unsettled.

Conference Races That Will Shape the Field

Big Ten

Indiana currently owns the strongest position, but Ohio State, Southern Cal, Penn State, Michigan and Iowa remain alive.

Southern Cal has reached 3-0 and has an opportunity to become a serious factor. Penn State is undefeated but still needs a significant victory. Michigan revived its season by beating Oklahoma, while Iowa continues to hang around by playing its familiar brand of physical, low-risk football.

The Big Ten champion is guaranteed admission. The problem for everyone else is that this conference may start eliminating its own contenders once the head-to-head games begin.

Big 12

BYU, Texas Tech, Utah and Houston are emerging as the most interesting teams in the Big 12 race.

The conference champion is guaranteed a playoff spot, but the Big 12 cannot assume it will receive multiple bids. That makes the conference race especially unforgiving.

Houston’s game against Texas Tech will begin separating legitimate contenders from teams that have merely taken advantage of the early schedule.

For most Big 12 teams, the cleanest—and perhaps only—reliable path is winning the conference.

ACC

Miami is clearly the class of the ACC right now.

SMU remains undefeated, Virginia has started well and Louisville is still alive despite an early loss. But none of them has looked as complete or as dangerous as Miami.

Clemson is technically alive because the ACC champion receives an automatic bid, but the Tigers have shown nothing suggesting they could win four consecutive playoff games.

That is the difference between being alive for the playoff and being alive for the Natty.

Work to Do

Oregon

Oregon has the most work to do among the preseason favorites.

The Ducks struggled against Boise State and then lost at Oklahoma State. They are 1-1, their toughness has been questioned and their defense has not looked like that of a championship team.

Oregon can still recover by running through the Big Ten, but the Ducks have already used their mulligan. Another loss would leave them needing a conference championship and considerable help.

Right now, Oregon looks more like a talented team trying to rediscover its identity than a legitimate national title contender.

Oklahoma

The loss to Michigan exposed the same concerns that followed Oklahoma into the season.

The Sooners have talent, but the offense has not consistently generated enough production against quality competition. Oklahoma now enters SEC play with no cushion and very little national momentum.

The Sooners are not eliminated, but their route has narrowed considerably. They need to start stacking conference victories immediately.

Louisville

Louisville’s loss to Ole Miss did not destroy its season, but it placed the Cardinals behind Miami and SMU in the ACC conversation.

The Cardinals must avoid another loss and probably need to reach the ACC championship game. Their at-large résumé is unlikely to survive two defeats without several significant victories.

Louisville still controls part of its future, but the room for error is gone.

The Group of Six Race

The Group of Six race has a different dynamic this season. The highest-ranked G6 team receives a guaranteed playoff berth—and that team does not have to win its conference.

That makes national perception, nonconference victories and head-to-head results extremely important.

Boise State Leads the Race

Boise State is only 1-1, but the Broncos currently possess the strongest G6 résumé.

They pushed Oregon on the road and then defeated Memphis 38-20 after trailing 17-3. Boise dominated the second half, rushed for 357 yards and scored the final 35 points of the game.

The loss to Oregon has lost some value because of the Ducks’ defeat at Oklahoma State, but the win over Memphis gives Boise an important head-to-head advantage.

If the Broncos win the Pac-12 and avoid another loss, the G6 berth is theirs to lose.

North Dakota State

North Dakota State’s transition to the FBS level has not changed the program’s identity.

The Bison remain physical, disciplined and comfortable in close games. Their victory over Air Force established them as a legitimate threat in the Mountain West and the overall G6 race.

North Dakota State will not have many opportunities to impress the committee with brand-name victories. That means the Bison must keep winning and may need to do it convincingly.

South Florida

South Florida is undefeated and already owns a conference victory over Army.

The Bulls have an opportunity to become the American’s leading playoff candidate, especially after Memphis and Navy stumbled.

South Florida’s path is simple: keep winning and take control of the American. The Bulls may not have Boise State’s national recognition, so an undefeated or one-loss résumé will likely be necessary.

James Madison

James Madison is 2-0 and just scored 87 points in a victory over Wagner.

Blowing out an FCS opponent will not carry much weight with the committee, but it demonstrated the explosiveness and depth of this team.

The Dukes must dominate the Sun Belt and avoid the kind of strange midseason loss that has damaged past G6 contenders. The September 26 game against North Dakota State could become one of the most important games in the entire G6 race.

North Texas

North Texas forced its way into the discussion by destroying UNLV.

That was not merely a victory. It was a 38-point statement against a team expected to contend for the G6 playoff berth.

North Texas still has work to do because it began the season outside the national conversation. But if the Mean Green continue winning, the committee will not be able to ignore them.

Memphis and Navy

Memphis and Navy are not eliminated, but both have surrendered control of the race.

Memphis must recover from the Boise State loss, win the American and hope the Broncos stumble. Navy’s conference loss to Florida Atlantic is even more damaging because the Midshipmen were expected to challenge for the American championship.

Both teams can recover. Neither can afford another mistake.

The Bottom Line

The season is young, but the championship race is already taking shape.

Miami, Texas, Georgia, LSU and Texas A&M are currently in the strongest position. Notre Dame and Indiana remain firmly in the hunt. Ohio State has the talent to recover, while Ole Miss and Alabama are approaching games that will reveal whether they are true contenders or simply playoff hopefuls.

Oregon and Oklahoma have already burned through their margin for error.

In the Group of Six, Boise State has taken the lead, but North Dakota State, South Florida, James Madison and North Texas are close enough to make the race interesting.

Nobody is in yet. Very few teams are completely out.

But every week from this point forward will narrow the field—and expose the teams that were never truly capable of winning the Natty in the first place.