I did this same exercise with South Carolina, so I figured it was only fair to take Clemson’s schedule and put it through the same process.
And that word—process—is important.
I don’t like simply looking at a schedule and going win, loss, win, loss. I want to know what has to happen first before the games later in the season even matter.
Clemson is coming off a disappointing 7-6 season, and expectations aren’t nearly as high as we’ve become accustomed to seeing around that program.
But when I look at this schedule, I actually see a legitimate path to 10 wins.
The question is whether Clemson can take care of business when it’s supposed to.
Let’s break it down.
AT LSU — LEAN LOSS
Hell of a way to start a season.
You’re going into Baton Rouge with a new starting quarterback and playing an LSU team that should have plenty of talent.
Could Clemson win it?
Absolutely.
But sitting here before we’ve seen either team play, I’m not going to predict Clemson walks into Baton Rouge and wins.
I’m starting them 0-1.
GEORGIA SOUTHERN — MUST WIN
There’s really nothing to discuss here.
If Clemson is going to be the kind of football team we’re talking about in December, this needs to be a comfortable win.
1-1.
NORTH CAROLINA — SHOULD WIN
North Carolina is interesting, but this one is in Death Valley.
Clemson should have the better football team.
This is another one that Clemson simply cannot afford to give away if we’re talking about nine or 10 wins.
2-1.
AT CAL — DANGER GAME
Circle this one.
Friday night.
10:30 Eastern kickoff.
All the way across the country.
Clemson should have the better football team, but these are exactly the kinds of games that can screw up an entire season.
Long travel. Strange environment. Late kickoff. Conference opponent.
I’m taking Clemson, but I’m not taking this one lightly.
3-1.
MIAMI — SWING GAME
Now we find out something.
Miami is going to have one of the better rosters Clemson sees all season, but they’re coming into Death Valley.
If Clemson wants to announce that last year’s 7-6 season was an aberration and they’re ready to get back into the national conversation, this is the kind of football game they need to win.
Right now, I’m leaning Miami.
3-2.
CHARLESTON SOUTHERN — MUST WIN
Nothing complicated about this one.
Win the football game and move on.
4-2.
VIRGINIA TECH — SHOULD WIN
Virginia Tech is a program I’m going to be watching closely, particularly with James Franklin taking over.
But this game is in Death Valley.
Clemson should win it.
5-2.
AT FLORIDA STATE — COIN FLIP
This is one of the games that could ultimately determine Clemson’s season.
Going into Tallahassee is never something I’m going to dismiss.
I could make an argument for either team right now.
But I’m going to give Clemson the benefit of the doubt.
6-2.
AT SYRACUSE — TRAP GAME
This one bothers me.
Not because I necessarily believe Syracuse is better than Clemson.
They’re not.
But Clemson has had a habit over the years of making games like this much more difficult than they need to be.
And this one comes immediately after Florida State.
That’s exactly where you see a team come out flat and suddenly find itself in a dogfight in the fourth quarter.
I’m still taking Clemson.
7-2.
GEORGIA TECH — SHOULD WIN
Back home in Death Valley.
Clemson should be the better football team.
Take care of business.
8-2.
AT DUKE — DANGER GAME
Another one I’m circling.
It’s a Friday night road game coming just six days after Georgia Tech.
Again, Clemson should have the better roster.
But I’m not looking only at rosters. I’m looking at circumstances.
And the circumstances make this one a little more dangerous than people may think.
I’ll still take Clemson.
9-2.
SOUTH CAROLINA — THE GAME
And then we get to the one everybody in this state will be talking about.
South Carolina.
Clemson.
Death Valley.
Throw everything else out the damn window.
I don’t care what either team’s record is when they get there. I don’t care who Vegas likes. I don’t care what happened in September.
It’s Clemson-South Carolina.
And I’m not picking this game in August.
I want to see both football teams play first.
So right now I’ve got Clemson sitting at 9-2 entering the South Carolina game.
And that’s where the process gets interesting.
THE FIRST GATE
Before Clemson starts worrying about LSU, Miami, Florida State or South Carolina, there are eight games it needs to take care of:
Georgia Southern
North Carolina
Cal
Charleston Southern
Virginia Tech
Syracuse
Georgia Tech
Duke
If Clemson is truly back to being Clemson, it should be capable of going 8-0 in those games.
That’s Gate No. 1.
Because if Clemson drops one of those games, everything changes.
Lose at Cal or Syracuse and suddenly you’ve got to steal another game somewhere else just to get back on schedule.
That’s why I always say you have to win the games you’re supposed to win before you start talking about championships and playoffs.
THEN COME THE FOUR
If Clemson handles those eight games, the season really comes down to four:
LSU
Miami
Florida State
South Carolina
Go 2-2 against those four?
You’re 10-2.
Go 1-3?
You’re 9-3.
Go 0-4?
You’re 8-4.
That’s Clemson’s season right there.
And when you break it down that way, 10 wins doesn’t sound nearly as ridiculous as it might when you first look at the schedule.
THE PATH IS THERE
I’m not predicting Clemson goes 11-1.
I’m not predicting they’re going to the College Football Playoff.
I’m saying there’s a very clear path for Clemson to win 10 football games.
Take care of the eight games you’re supposed to win.
Then go 2-2 against LSU, Miami, Florida State and South Carolina.
That’s it.
The problem is that Clemson went 7-6 last year because it wasn’t consistently doing what Clemson used to do—beating teams it was supposed to beat.
That’s what I’m watching for early.
Forget the playoff.
Forget the ACC Championship.
Forget national rankings.
First show me that Clemson can consistently take care of business again.
Because everything is a process.
And Gate No. 1 comes before Gate No. 2.
Handle the first eight.
Then we’ll talk about the big boys.
That’s Clemson’s path to 10.
