Has Dabo Swinney Lost His Grip on the Tigers?
By Jim Baxter
There was a time when Clemson losing three football games in an entire season would have been considered a major disappointment.
Now, the Tigers have lost three of their first seven, and quite frankly, I’m not convinced they’re finished losing.
Saturday night’s 20-16 loss to Virginia Tech was particularly damaging. Not simply because Clemson lost at home, but because this was a game the Tigers desperately needed to win.
Clemson is now 4-3 overall and 2-2 in the ACC.
And I think it’s time we have a serious conversation about the state of this football program.
THE STANDARD HAS CHANGED
Let’s remember something.
Dabo Swinney built Clemson into one of the premier programs in college football. Two national championships, multiple College Football Playoff appearances, and a period when the Tigers were recruiting and developing talent at a level that rivaled Alabama.
Clemson wasn’t simply winning the ACC. The Tigers were dominating it.
But that Clemson program seems like a distant memory.
The Tigers have already been embarrassed by LSU and Miami this season, losing those games by a combined 69 points.
Now they’ve lost to Virginia Tech in Death Valley.
And here’s what concerns me most.
I don’t see the same caliber of athletes that Clemson had during its championship years. I don’t see the explosiveness, particularly offensively, and I certainly don’t see the consistency.
This isn’t simply about losing a few football games.
It’s about the direction of the program.
THE OFFENSE IS A SERIOUS PROBLEM
Clemson’s offensive struggles have become impossible to ignore.
Against Virginia Tech, the Tigers managed just 16 points despite getting a pretty solid performance from their defense.
Freshman quarterback Tait Reynolds completed 20 of 26 passes, but those completions produced just 153 yards.
That tells me something.
Clemson isn’t threatening defenses vertically.
The Tigers have talented receivers, including Bryant Wesco Jr. and T.J. Moore, but they’re not consistently creating explosive plays.
And when you’re struggling to stretch the field, defenses can crowd the line of scrimmage and make everything more difficult.
I’ve evaluated quarterbacks and offensive personnel for a long time, and one thing I’ve learned is that you can have all the talent in the world at the skill positions, but if you cannot protect the quarterback and create opportunities downfield, you’re going to struggle.
That’s exactly what we’re seeing.
THE DEFENSE DESERVED BETTER
I’ll give Clemson’s defense credit.
The Tigers held Virginia Tech to 234 total yards, including just 70 yards rushing.
They recorded six sacks.
That’s the kind of defensive performance that should win you a football game at home.
But the offense couldn’t capitalize, and when Virginia Tech needed a touchdown late, the Hokies marched 69 yards for the winning score.
Three costly penalties helped keep that drive alive.
Good football teams find ways to finish games.
Clemson didn’t.
FIVE GAMES LEFT. HOW MANY CAN THEY WIN?
Here’s where things get interesting.
Clemson has five regular-season games remaining.
And quite frankly, I’m not sure I can confidently pick the Tigers to win four of them.
October 31: At Florida State
This is a dangerous road game. Florida State has been inconsistent, but the Seminoles have enough talent to make life difficult for Clemson.
November 7: At Syracuse
Another road game, and another matchup that could become problematic if Clemson continues struggling offensively.
November 14: Georgia Tech
I don’t consider this an automatic victory by any stretch of the imagination. Georgia Tech is capable of making Clemson uncomfortable.
November 20: At Duke
Another road test against a program that has demonstrated it can compete in the ACC.
November 28: South Carolina
The annual rivalry game.
And while South Carolina has plenty of problems of its own, I’m certainly not ready to pencil this one into Clemson’s win column.
That’s five games, including three on the road.
For Clemson to finish 8-4, the Tigers must win four of those five.
To finish 9-3, they must win out.
I don’t see that happening.
In fact, based on what I’ve watched through seven games, I wouldn’t be surprised if Clemson finishes 7-5.
And I wouldn’t completely dismiss the possibility of 6-6.
Think about that for a moment.
We’re talking about Clemson.
THE DABO SWINNEY QUESTION
I’m not suggesting Clemson should fire Dabo Swinney.
But I am suggesting that the university needs to take a serious look at where this program is headed.
Dabo deserves tremendous credit for what he built.
However, what he accomplished five or ten years ago doesn’t automatically guarantee success today.
College football has changed dramatically.
The transfer portal, NIL, roster management, and the overall business of college athletics have transformed the sport.
The question is whether Dabo has adapted quickly enough.
I have my doubts.
And I think the results on the football field are beginning to support those doubts.
Clemson once had a significant talent advantage over most of its ACC opponents.
I don’t believe that advantage exists anymore.
And when you lose that advantage, coaching, player development, recruiting evaluations, and roster management become even more important.
MY FINAL THOUGHTS
I’m not ready to declare Clemson football dead.
That would be ridiculous.
The Tigers still have resources, facilities, tradition, and a national brand that many programs would love to have.
But I do believe Clemson has reached a crossroads.
The days of simply showing up and overwhelming ACC opponents with superior talent appear to be over.
And unless something changes, I don’t see Clemson returning to national championship contention anytime soon.
The next five games are extremely important.
Not because Clemson is playing for a national championship.
That ship has sailed.
They’re playing to salvage a respectable season and demonstrate that this program is still moving in the right direction.
And quite frankly, I’m not convinced they can do either.
The biggest question surrounding Clemson football is no longer whether Dabo Swinney can win another national championship.
It’s whether he can rebuild the program into one capable of competing for one.
And those are two very different questions.
JB TALKING SPORTS
State of the Program | Clemson Tigers
