By Jim Baxter
I’ve made a change at the top of my quarterback rankings for the 2027 NFL Draft, and it’s one I’ve been considering for a while.
Oklahoma State’s Drew Mestemaker has moved into my No. 1 spot, with Notre Dame’s CJ Carr sliding to No. 2.
I’ve spent a lot of years evaluating quarterbacks, and one thing I’ve learned is that you can’t get caught up in statistics or physical measurements alone. There are certain qualities that separate good college quarterbacks from guys who have a chance to become outstanding NFL quarterbacks.
And sometimes those qualities don’t show up on a stat sheet.
Right now, I have six quarterbacks ranked on my draft board. Several of them could elect to return to college football, which would certainly change the complexion of this quarterback class.
Here is where I currently stand.
1. DREW MESTEMAKER
Oklahoma State | Projected Top 10 Pick
Potential Top 5 Selection
Mestemaker has become one of the most interesting quarterback prospects in college football, and I’ve moved him to the top of my board for several reasons.
First, I believe he’s the more complete quarterback prospect when compared to CJ Carr. I also believe he has a higher developmental ceiling.
But there’s something else about this kid that I really like.
He’s tough.
And I’m talking about physical toughness.
There’s a toughness to the way Mestemaker plays the game that stands out to me. He’s relentlessly competitive, and that’s something I’ve always placed tremendous value on when evaluating quarterbacks.
I want to know how a quarterback responds when he’s getting hit, when his offensive line is struggling, or when his team is facing adversity.
Does he back down, or does he keep coming?
Mestemaker strikes me as the kind of competitor who keeps coming.
His transition from North Texas to Oklahoma State has also demonstrated that his abilities can translate against a higher level of competition.
But there’s an interesting dilemma surrounding his draft decision.
Mestemaker didn’t start at quarterback in high school, and his relatively limited experience at the position is something NFL teams will have to consider.
That’s a legitimate concern.
NFL teams selecting quarterbacks in the first round generally expect those players to contribute sooner rather than later. Some are expected to start immediately.
Is Mestemaker ready for that responsibility?
That’s a question he and the teams evaluating him will have to answer.
There’s also the financial consideration. If he’s looking at being selected among the first five players in the draft, that’s an awful lot of money to walk away from.
On the other hand, another year of college football could provide valuable experience.
But returning also brings the possibility of injury, regression, and competition from what could be an outstanding 2028 quarterback class.
It’s a difficult decision.
As far as my evaluation is concerned, however, Drew Mestemaker is currently my QB1.
I believe he’s the most complete prospect in this group, and I like his long-term potential.
2. CJ CARR
Notre Dame | Projected Top 10 Pick
Carr has played up to the expectations I had for him entering the season.
He’s an outstanding young quarterback prospect, and I continue to believe he has the tools necessary to become a successful NFL quarterback.
Moving him down one spot shouldn’t be interpreted as a significant change in how I view his abilities.
It’s more about how highly I’ve come to regard Mestemaker.
Carr remains firmly in my top ten overall draft discussion.
He’s another quarterback who could return to college football, but if he continues playing at his current level, I expect him to declare for the draft.
And if he does, I believe he’ll be selected within the first ten picks.
I wouldn’t be surprised if Carr and Mestemaker are the first two quarterbacks taken.
The order will ultimately depend on what individual NFL teams value most at the position.
3. TRINIDAD CHAMBLISS
Ole Miss | Projected First Round, Top 20
Chambliss has been one of the more impressive quarterbacks in college football this season.
He’s playing at an extremely high level, and I believe he’s putting himself in position to become a first-round selection.
His situation is a little different from some of the other quarterbacks on this list.
Chambliss needed a court ruling to play this season, and he currently has no standard college eligibility remaining afterward.
That makes his decision relatively straightforward.
I expect him to enter the NFL Draft.
Based on what I’ve seen, I believe he’s a legitimate top-20 prospect.
He’s helped himself tremendously with his performance this season, and I don’t see any reason to believe that momentum can’t continue.
4. DARIAN MENSAH
Miami | Potential First-Round Pick
Mensah is another quarterback who has elevated his draft stock this season.
Technically, he could return to college football.
But quite frankly, I’ve believed all along that his move to Miami was intended to be a one-year stop before entering the NFL Draft.
And based on how he’s playing, I don’t see much reason for him to change those plans.
Mensah has demonstrated the ability to operate an offense at a high level, and he’s putting together the kind of season that attracts attention from NFL scouts.
I believe he’s playing himself into the first round.
The biggest question will be exactly where NFL teams place him relative to the other quarterbacks in this class.
Right now, I’ve got him fourth.
5. DANTE MOORE
Oregon | Possible First-Round Pick
Moore made the difficult decision to return to college football this season rather than enter the previous draft.
I expect him to declare this time around.
There are certainly things to like about his game, and I believe he has enough ability to warrant first-round consideration.
However, his recovery from a concussion is something I’ll be monitoring.
Anytime you’re evaluating a quarterback with an injury concern, particularly one involving a concussion, you have to consider the medical information along with the football evaluation.
Assuming his recovery progresses well and he finishes the season in good health, I still believe he has a legitimate opportunity to be selected in the first round.
6. JAYDEN MAIAVA
USC | Projected Second Round
Maiava is an interesting prospect.
He’s a big, strong quarterback who can deliver the football under duress and distribute it accurately.
I like his ability to stand in and make throws when there’s pressure around him.
However, I don’t believe he possesses elite arm strength or mobility.
Those are limitations that have to be considered when projecting him to the NFL.
That said, I’ve spoken with people associated with NFL teams who are considerably higher on Maiava than the general public seems to be.
There’s a belief that he could offer the kind of value that Tyler Shough represented as a prospect.
I’m not projecting Maiava as a first-round selection at this point.
But I do believe he could be an attractive second-round option for a team looking to develop a quarterback.
ONE TO WATCH: CONNER WEIGMAN
There’s another quarterback I’m keeping an eye on, and that’s Conner Weigman.
I haven’t moved him into my top six yet, but he’s certainly on my radar.
Right now, I’m thinking Weigman has the potential to become a Day 2 selection.
That would put him somewhere in the second or third round.
I’ll continue evaluating him as the season progresses.
TWO QUARTERBACKS I BELIEVE SHOULD RETURN TO COLLEGE
LANORRIS SELLERS | SOUTH CAROLINA
I’ve been pretty vocal about my evaluation of Sellers this season.
The physical tools are there.
Nobody is questioning that.
But I’ve also been critical of his development, particularly in areas that I believe are essential for success at the NFL level.
I’ve said for years that processing information is one of the most important abilities a quarterback can possess.
A quarterback has to recognize what he’s seeing, process that information, and make the correct decision in a fraction of a second.
That’s an area where I believe Sellers still needs considerable development.
I don’t believe he’s ready for the NFL.
In fact, I think another year of college football would benefit him tremendously.
But here’s where things could get interesting.
Would Sellers consider entering the transfer portal?
I wouldn’t be surprised.
And one potential destination that comes to mind is Miami.
I’m not reporting that there’s any contact or interest. I’m simply looking at a possible scenario if Sellers decides a change of scenery would benefit his development.
ARCH MANNING | TEXAS
Manning is another quarterback who I believe would benefit from returning to college football.
I’ve never been convinced that he deserved the enormous preseason hype surrounding his NFL Draft prospects.
He has talent, but there are aspects of his game that still need considerable work.
And quite frankly, I believe his development has been disappointing.
If Texas decides to make a change at quarterback, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Manning enter the transfer portal.
I’ve mentioned Ole Miss as a possible destination.
But there’s another school that I believe could make sense.
Kentucky.
And the reason is Will Stein.
I believe Stein could help Manning develop as a quarterback, and that’s something Manning desperately needs.
This isn’t about Manning’s last name.
It’s about evaluating the quarterback who’s actually on the field.
And right now, I believe another year of college football, potentially in a different offensive system, would be in his best interest.
LOOKING AHEAD TO THE 2028 QUARTERBACK CLASS
One factor that could influence the decisions of several quarterbacks on this list is the potential strength of the 2028 draft class.
There are some talented young quarterbacks who could be part of that group, including:
- Keelon Russell, Alabama
- Kamario Taylor, Mississippi State
- Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele, California
Depending on their development and eventual draft eligibility, that could become a very competitive quarterback class.
That’s something players considering a return to college football have to think about.
There’s no guarantee that waiting another year will improve your draft position.
Sometimes it does.
Sometimes it doesn’t.
JB’S FINAL THOUGHTS
I’ve evaluated quarterbacks for a long time, and my approach hasn’t changed much over the years.
I look at physical tools, mechanics, accuracy, vision, pocket awareness, and the ability to process information.
But I also look at the things that are a little more difficult to measure.
Mental toughness.
Physical toughness.
Leadership.
Competitive fire.
How does a quarterback respond when everything around him is falling apart?
That’s when I believe you really find out what kind of quarterback you’re evaluating.
And that’s a big part of why Drew Mestemaker has moved to the top of my board.
I believe he’s the more complete prospect, I believe he has the higher ceiling, and I love the physical toughness and relentless competitiveness he brings to the position.
There’s still a lot of football to be played, and these rankings are certainly subject to change.
But right now, that’s how I see the 2027 quarterback class.
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